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Why Jakarta’s refusal to allow a Russian base is credible
Moscow has been Jakarta's close and reliable defense partner since Indonesia’s first president, Sukarno, was in power.
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Bilateral exercise: Crew members stand on the Russian Navy's UFA submarine as it prepares to dock on November 7, 2024, at the North Jamrud pier of Tanjung Perak port for a 5-day joint military exercise between Indonesia and Russia, in Surabaya, East Java. (AFP/Juni Kriswanto)
F
ollowing a report that Russia had requested access to an Indonesian air base in Biak island, about 1,300 kilometers from Darwin, Indonesian Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin assured his Australian counterpart and dismissed the prospect of Russian aircraft being based in Indonesia. Peter Jennings argues in The Australian that Jakarta’s assurance should be received with skepticism.
Jenning mentions several factors to support his argument, including Australia's not having a “clear line of sight” into Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto's thinking or political thoughts. He then points out that Prabowo pledged to build closer ties with Russia, with the Indonesian military acquiring Russian-made weapons and conducting military exercises with Russia in the Java Sea in 2024.
These arguments rest on weak grounds.
First, Jennings’ article does not reflect the realistic nature of international relations. No state will ever have a “clear line of sight” into other leaders’ thinking or political thoughts.
For that matter, Australia will never have a comprehensive understanding of United States President Donald Trump’s thought process. Does that mean Canberra must be skeptical of any statement coming from Washington?
Second, the article demonstrates a lack of understanding about Indonesia’s strategic culture. Since independence, Jakarta has emphasized nonalignment. This position is not in line with Indonesia allowing foreign military to operate from its territories, which can be interpreted as taking the side of one major power against another.
Indonesia also aspires to be seen as a major power in its own right and as ASEAN's big brother. Allowing Russia to use Indonesian military bases will undermine this aspiration, as it can be seen as subservient to a foreign power.
