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View all search resultsMadness or common sense: The two futures of the Asia-Pacific
The ASEAN+3 mechanism, where ASEAN nations sit with Japan, South Korea and China, would become one of the most relevant political forums in the region for discussing the Taiwan issue.
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A vessel from the Taiwan Coast Guard (front) monitors a China Coast Guard ship on Dec. 12, 2024, while patrolling waters a few nautical miles from Taiwan's northeastern coast.
(AFP/Taiwan Coast Guard)
T
here are no better words than "madness" and "common sense" to characterize the two scenarios that may define the not-so-distant future of the Asia-Pacific.
"Madness" refers to a scenario in which a brutal, bloody military conflict erupts in the Taiwan Strait, triggered by a decision from Beijing to militarily take over Taiwan, the self-governing territory it claims as an inalienable part of China.
Such a prospect would inevitably precipitate a larger conflict, drawing in Japan, the Philippines and, inevitably, the United States. In this chaos, ASEAN as a bloc would likely fail to find a common position, while the reactions of individual members would remain an enigma. States like Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam would find themselves caught in an impossible strategic bind.
"Common sense," on the other hand, prevails if China and its neighbors in Southeast Asia continue their fruitful trade and economic relations. At the political level, an agreement on the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea, while not a panacea capable of working miracles, would help establish red lines regarding unacceptable behavior.
Minor skirmishes between Chinese patrol vessels and Philippine fishing boats or coast guards might not disappear entirely, but should they occur, both parties would fully understand the limits of their actions to prevent escalation.
In this scenario, Taiwan remains what it is today: a self-ruling territory with established diplomatic ties to a small handful of nations. China would continue to assert its rights over the democratic island, but both parties would attempt to resolve their disputes diplomatically. The ASEAN+3 mechanism, where ASEAN nations sit with Japan, South Korea and China, would become one of the most relevant political forums in the region for discussing delicate issues.
In short, this is what I call a "Status Quo Plus-Plus" scenario, where all nations and territories in the region wisely decide to prioritize cooperation over confrontation.
