The city administration has met the World Health Organization’s requirement for the minimum daily number of polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests and says it is confident in its services and health facilities, even though Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan recently said that the city’s infection data suggested that cases were still on the rise.

“The effective reproduction number [Rt] has increased. We had, for a while, been below 1. The figure stands at 1.15 as of Monday, [...] which indicates an acceleration in COVID-19 transmission,” Anies said during a press conference on Thursday evening.

“Therefore, it would be very risky to ease restrictions further and enter the next phase [of the transition].”

The Rt is the average number of people who will catch a disease from a single infected person in a given population.

Jakarta first extended its large-scale social restrictions (PSBB) on June 4, setting a prospective end date of July 16. The administration described the extension as part of a transitional phase that would include the gradual reopening of several service sectors.

Earlier this week, Anies said the administration might have to “pull the emergency brake” on the policy if cases continued to soar. He hinted that this could lead to the reinstatement of a stricter PSBB regime. The statement came after the city recorded a record number of daily new cases.

Anies said the spike was the result of an increase in the number of tests performed: 3,194 people tested per 1 million from July 2 to 8 and 3,600 tested per 1 million from July 9 to 15.

The total number of new cases reported during July’s two-week extension was 3,846, more than 90 percent of the confirmed cases during the month-long transitional phase in June (4,181 cases). The total number of people tested during the two-week period was 67,283 – 60 percent of the number of people tested in the previous month, according to data compiled by The Jakarta Post.

Biostatistician Iwan Ariawan of the University of Indonesia’s School of Public Health said the faculty’s team had recommended that the administration either restore the stricter PSBB regime or continue with the transitional phase, while also placing an emphasis on stronger efforts to improve the implementation of health protocols.

He cited a joint survey by the Lapor COVID-19 community movement and Nanyang Technological University’s Social Resilience Lab published earlier this month on people’s perceptions of the outbreak’s danger.

The survey interviewed 154,471 people in Jakarta with questions that included how likely respondents thought they were to be infected by the disease. About 77 percent of respondents believed they were “unlikely” to be infected.

“We cannot expect people to consistently implement health protocols if they still [underestimate the risks],” he said.

Jakarta Public Order Agency (Satpol PP) head Arifin acknowledged that more people had been flaunting the rules during the transitional phase, such as by not wearing masks, especially in wet markets and residential areas.

“People are probably feeling worn out. Economic factors have also resulted in people’s higher mobility,” he said.

The agency has punished 25,070 people for not wearing masks since April; 1,708 paid the fine in full and 23,362 were made to do community service, such as cleaning the streets and gutters. Many people fell into the latter category because they could not afford to pay the fine, Arifin said.

The agency has collected Rp 572.16 million (US$39,804) in fines, with Rp 310.81 million from people who failed to wear a mask. The remainder was collected from businesses and offices that had neglected health protocols.

Iwan called on the administration to put more effort into the new transitional period, particularly by communicating with the public about the disease to increase acceptance of health protocols.

“If the current situation remains – meaning behaviors do not improve – it will take a very long time for the [infection] curve to flatten. We predict that it won't even end by December,” said the UI biostatistician.

Jakarta Deputy Governor Ahmad Riza Patria told a local broadcaster on Thursday that there would not be any change to the existing regulations.

The administration’s strategy is to postpone plans to reopen certain businesses, such as movie theaters and indoor entertainment venues, as well as to deploy more security personnel in the city and to keep improving testing, he said.

The administration has waived the entry and exit permit (SIKM) requirement for intercity travelers, beginning on July 17. The effectiveness of the policy significantly declined after the transitional phase began and after the central government eased travel restrictions, Jakarta Transportation Agency head Syafrin Liputo said in a statement.

Baequni, the head of the Jakarta branch of the Indonesian Public Health Expert Association (IAKMI), argued that punitive measures should have been preceded by proper education about health behaviors, which he thought had been consistently lacking.

Proper education included guidance and a continuous evaluation of health behaviors at the grassroots level, instead of merely reminding people to follow health protocols, he said. External intervention from professionals would prompt a better “psychological effect” to achieve behavioral change.

“We cannot live in a cage forever, [...] but we have yet to put in sufficient effort [to instill a culture of public health awareness],” Baequni said.

“It is okay to punish people if we have provided them with guidance from the outset. Otherwise, people may be tempted to resist the authority at some point.”

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