For Southeast Asia’s largest economy, the question of whether incumbent US President Donald Trump or Democratic contender Joe Biden will make for a better counterpart is a moot point, with experts predicting that the election result would not have too big an impact on the bilateral relationship – or the rivalry with China.

Following a neck-and-neck race on Tuesday, Trump was condemned for falsely claiming election victory early on Wednesday as the vote count was still under way. And even if he loses, Trump has said he would go to the Supreme Court to dispute the vote count, AFP reported.

The Republican president is running against the Democrats’ Biden, who said "we believe we're on track to win this election” but also warned that getting the final results would “take a while” because of the unprecedented use of mail-in voting during the COVID-19 pandemic.

But Indonesia will not be holding its breath.

Regardless of who wins the US election, there are not likely to be any fundamental changes in US-Indonesian relations, said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, cofounder of the Foreign Policy Community of Indonesia.

Part of this is to do with the fact that Indonesia, like other ASEAN states and regional powers in general, manage their relations with superpowers not based on politics but on issues. “That’s why there are some issues for which we approach China [for support], while for others we are more comfortable dealing with the US,” the research professor said.

However, she said it was still very important for Indonesia and the US to stand together on values, since the two countries experience similar problems, including on minority issues, and so how the US responds to those issues could send ripple effects onto other countries.

Another reason for the lack of changes is the comprehensive strategic partnership that the US and Indonesia established under the Barack Obama administration, Dewi said, which was a bipartisan decision but the ramifications of which have been underwhelming since Trump’s 2016 election win.

“Under the Trump administration, not much progress was actually made until recent weeks, including [US Secretary of State Mike] Pompeo's visit,” the international relations expert told The Jakarta Post on Wednesday.

In the past month, Indonesia and the US have seemingly made big strides in their multifaceted relationship, beginning with an official visit by Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto to the Pentagon in mid-October.

Prabowo’s visit to meet Defense Secretary Mark Esper was considered by experts as a diplomatic breakthrough, as the retired Indonesian Army general had faced barriers to entry to the US because of alleged human rights violations.

Moving in the opposite direction, Secretary of State Pompeo visited Indonesia last week just as Washington moved to conclude its review of Indonesian products in the General System of Preferences (GSP), extending Jakarta’s trade perks under the preferential arrangement.

In an online press briefing to raise awareness about the GSP facility among Indonesian businesses on Monday, Indonesian Ambassador to the US Muhammad Lutfi emphasized that the partners would stand as equals, as “new old friends” who shared values and norms.

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However, Washington’s advances to Jakarta were undercut by the latter’s insistence on its “free and active foreign policy”, in which it refuses to take sides in the midst of the US-China tensions.

Indonesia has managed to position itself in the middle of the superpower rivalry, said Adriana Elisabeth, a senior researcher at the Indonesian Institute of Sciences (LIPI). She said the country was “acting like a swing state that is pulled by both sides.”

The Trump administration has made it a point to antagonize China on many fronts, from the elections and global public health to a trade war and regional security.

The issue of China and the origin of COVID-19 in Wuhan has been among the hot-button issues that Trump has tried to highlight as the US failed to control the spread of the virus.

China, for its part, has proven itself a defender of global free trade and multilateralism, two tenets that have been all but abandoned by the Trump administration. However, Beijing's ambiguity when it comes to the rule of law and human rights has countries in and outside the region worried.

But by continuing to hedge its position, Adriana suggested Indonesia was not making the best of its free and active foreign policy. “Being free and independent does not mean it has to be neutral. We can still take sides based on our own interests,” she said.

As Indonesian officials quietly lobbied both sides of the aisle in Washington, US foreign policy under Trump has largely neglected Southeast Asia, only returning focus to the region in earnest in the past year, driven by its rivalry with China, which has made inroads with its Belt and Road initiative and other economic cooperation programs in the region.

Under Obama, the US government signed an ASEAN-led pact of neutrality as part of requirements to engage in a dialogue partnership with the bloc. It also joined the East Asia Summit and frequently attended ASEAN meetings, as part of the "pivot to Asia" strategy.

In contrast, Trump only briefly attended the ASEAN Summit in 2017 and has since been represented at the forum by lower-ranking officials.

Amid China’s meteoric rise, ASEAN member states have lamented the lack of US engagement in the region, having demanded at the beginning of Trump’s term that Washington consider strengthening its presence.

The US Mission to ASEAN has been without an ambassador – one of ASEAN’s requests – ever since the US President removed Obama’s political appointee from the post in 2017.

After the current election, however, neither Trump nor Biden would likely change how the US lobbies for support against China.

Under another Trump administration, which Dewi has characterized as “highly disruptive and destructive”, there would not be much change in the US approach to Indonesia.

And while Biden probably wants to see a return to Obama’s pivot toward Asia, she said the rivalry with China would remain more or less the same.

“We believe that the strategic rivalry with China is already structural,” Dewi said. “Only the tone will not be as hostile.”