Nonetheless, I do not think this will be the end of the story for Trump, as he is very likely to continue his attempt to derail Biden’s presidency, although how intensely and deeply he will do so depends on how Biden and the Democratic Party leadership follow up on the aftermath of the Jan. 6 mob attack on the Capitol by Trump supporters and on how much support they get from the leadership of the Republican Party.

The House of Representatives voted to impeach Trump for the second time on Jan. 13, but the Senate’s decision remains to be seen.

In terms of foreign policy, Biden’s efforts to overturn many of Trump’s damaging legacies, including those regarding China, are not going to happen overnight, nor will they be easy to achieve. I do not think Biden will change US policies toward China, but you can expect him to be more rational, consistent and respectful. He is aware that US public opinion has shifted.

Several public opinion polls show that the public in both the US and China view each other as a “threat”. The American public’s “unfavorable” ratings of China in 2019 exceeded even the very high unfavorable rating in 1989, when the Tiananmen Square violence occurred.

I think Biden also understands that he has to start with domestic policies to rebuild America’s national strength: investment in research and development, infrastructure and in people’s health and education. These policies are the basis for restoring the country’s international leadership and competition with China.

Biden will want to deal with China in a smarter way, combining working with the Chinese on some issues, such as global warming and the COVID-19 pandemic, with competition in technological leadership and confronting military expansionism, human rights and unfair trade practices. This will be a more strategic approach, as opposed to Trump’s ad hoc and transactional tactics. 

Moreover, Biden is going to work closely with allies and partners and put shared values at the core of his agenda by building a “forum of democracy” and rebuilding multilateralism. For that, rejoining the Paris Agreement and the World Health Organization are among the quickest gains. And in this way, he can put pressure on China over time.

But the agreement between the EU and China on investment has made a new reality apparent for the US: that others, including the EU, have been willing to move on during the Trump period.

What about Xi Jinping’s expectations of Biden? China is not going to significantly change its approach to the US, mainly because it is worried about repercussions from Trump and his supporters. I believe China will slowly and continuously open up to the US, but the leaders should not expect a quick recovery in bilateral relations.

In the eyes of China, the US is still the leading global power, although in relative decline. At the same time, China is preparing for a “dual circulation” economic strategy, which accounts for the possibility that there could be a negative outcome in the country’s relationship with the US under Biden. This is a kind of risk management strategy for if the US turns out to be an adversary again but also fit for renewed engagement with the outside world. In any case, domestic economic affairs will dominate China’s future development. 

In short, it will take time before the two major powers establish a new balance. And it will be with a lot of restraint on both sides.

For almost two decades, the US has undermined its own greatest soft power, which includes its orderly governance at home and generally responsible behavior abroad. A series of issues have undermined its credibility, namely the Iraq War, domestic economic mismanagement, the global financial crisis and withdrawal from agreements that Washington had encouraged and signed. “America First,” as promoted by Trump, is a doctrine with no appeal to anyone but a fraction of the American public and has hurt the economic interdependence between the US and China.

On China’s side, Chairman Deng’s advice was, “Do not show off,” and that China should accept that in many areas, it is still behind. If you remain pragmatic, you know when to stop and when to push ahead. Looking at China’s policies of late, some of which have been assertive toward neighboring countries, it seems that Deng’s advice needs to be revived.

The US strategy in Asia has been to prevent one single big power or coalition from controlling the Eurasian landmass and the Pacific. The US speaks increasingly of the need to cooperate with “like-minded countries,” but it seems that this does not include China. China sees hegemony and containment as the ultimate aims of US policies.

At present, the US is facing China and Russia, which are conducting joint military exercises to deter the US. The alignment of Beijing and Moscow is growing closer as Washington seeks to construct a counter-alignment with its Indo-Pacific strategy, thereby moving the relationship from the realm of mutual strategic suspicion to strategic friction and mutual deterrence.

Thus, signals of declining cooperation between the US and China are everywhere. The current trade frictions between the countries are inflicting pain on the global economy, as well as on the citizens of both countries.

I argue that East Asia is lucky that Biden has won the election. If Trump were reelected, it could have been a calamity for the US and for the rest of the world. The US could never recover its former leadership of the world. Although I still believe US policy toward China will remain “strict” – meaning that the US will always be suspicious of China and its readiness to implement its obligations and promises – a rational president like Biden will be more sensible in his approach to China.

With Biden at helm, the US and China may be able to achieve some basic mutual understanding and, after a while, lay down some basic agreements as to how the two major powers should go about running the international order. Only with such an understanding can peace, stability and development in the world be maintained.

The world cannot accept a hegemon anymore. International relations should be multilateral, where China and the US are the primus inter pares.

Now, the US and China must decide whether they will pursue primacy and dominance or seek regional balance by making room for one another. The latter approach seems feasible and advisable; the former does not. Both sides have to answer the questions they have put to each other: Will the US make room for China internationally, and will China allow for US influence in the region, especially in Asia Pacific?

− This is the first of a two-part article

***

The writer is vice chair, board of trustees of CSIS Foundation

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