Indeed, the Biden administration has been focused on domestic priorities, including completing the vaccination program to check the COVID-19 pandemic, restoring employment and growth in the American economy, and passing infrastructure and industrial policy legislation, with a focus on supply chain security for key technologies and manufacturing capacity.

Meanwhile, now that the new US Trade Representative Katherine Tai is in place, the process of assembling a Biden trade agenda will move forward, as will the review of the trade policies left behind by president Trump. Once work on domestic legislative priorities is completed later this year, we can expect the administration will begin to address pending trade issues and initiate some new initiatives.  

With regard to the Indo-Pacific region, the administration has sent signals it intends to increase its engagement to counter the economic and security threats it sees posed by China. The first foreign visit by new Secretary of State Tony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin were to two key regional allies, Japan and South Korea, with Austin also going on to a meeting in India. The regional message is being underscored with President Joe Biden invitation to Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to be the first foreign leader to meet with him at the White House.

On trade with the region, President Biden does not intend to rejoin the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact, at least not anytime soon.  As a default option, the Biden administration may end up pursuing bilateral trade initiatives with countries in Asia, the approach preferred by the Trump administration. 

Of course, there is a list of trade concerns still pending with China, unfinished negotiations with Japan and India, and a ballooning bilateral deficit with Vietnam that demands action sooner or later under the cloud of Section 301 unfair trade practice investigations launched by the Trump administration. 

As the Biden administration builds a trade agenda for the region, there is every reason why expanded trade with Indonesia should be a priority. Indeed, if Indonesia was inclined there are probably near term opportunities for a series of phased bilateral trade deals, rather than a single undertaking of a comprehensive free trade agreement. Thus far, Indonesia has seemed cautious to push on what we think would be an open door.

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