In the November 2020 election, prior to the coup, the political party backed by the military lost by a landslide to the National League for Democracy led by Aung San Suu Kyi. The Myanmar people voted decisively against military rule. Despite the violent crackdown against demonstrations and the civil disobedience movement, there are no signs that any sides are backing down.

The situation looks increasingly grim as the Tatmadaw escalates its brutal campaign by shooting to kill and using heavy weaponry, including assault rifles and grenades, against unarmed civilians. More than 700 people, including at least dozens of children, have been killed by security forces and thousands more have been injured or arbitrarily detained, many with their whereabouts and fates unknown. Widespread and indiscriminate attacks on the population have taken place not just in cities, towns, wards and villages, but have extended to border areas already marred by violence against ethnic minorities.

Myanmar is home to at least 20 ethnic armed groups who control about a third of the country's territory. They have been fighting for greater autonomy for decades and some groups are being pulled into renewed conflict with the Tatmadaw. Several groups have condemned the coup and threatened retaliation for the Tatmadaw’s brutal treatment of the protests. Two of the strongest armed groups, the Kachin Independence Army and the Karen National Union, acted upon those threats and attacked military outposts.

Consequently, there has been increased fighting in Kayin, Shan and Kachin states, including military airstrikes in Kayin State which have resulted in human suffering and displacement, and thousands fleeing to Thailand. The movement of refugees at the Thai and Indian borders and elsewhere is likely to continue as the situation deteriorates further.

This crisis is occurring against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic which is having an adverse impact on the already fragile public health system. There is also an increased risk of other health emergencies, including outbreaks of diseases.

As calls grow louder for ASEAN to do more, the regional bloc, which has long provided solidarity and support for Myanmar, cannot take a “business as usual” approach while the situation in the country is rapidly unravelling. ASEAN through its Chair issued a statement at the beginning of the coup and at the subsequent foreign ministers’ meeting expressing further concerns, but they were disregarded by the Tatmadaw.

As more member states, including Malaysia, have supported the call for a special ASEAN summit to tackle the crisis, the military must pause and reflect on the fact that the ASEAN Charter is binding on all member states, including Myanmar, which participated in the drafting and adoption process in 2007.

The summit is the highest decision-making body within ASEAN and can address emergency situations affecting the region or serious breaches or non-compliance of the charter. The charter enshrines the principles of democracy, rule of law and good governance, and respect and protection of human rights. These are fundamental ideals that must be restored in Myanmar, even if they seem remote right now.

To have any hope of influencing the Tatmadaw, ASEAN must be firm, unified and resolute in helping to pull Myanmar back from the brink. The current situation is extremely dire, with a real risk that the country could descend into further civil war and a humanitarian disaster, which would have enormous implications for ASEAN and the region. 

The summit must pry open the door to dialogue and reconciliation. ASEAN can call upon the secretary-general, the chair, or the troika (comprising the foreign ministers of the previous, current and next ASEAN chair) to visit Myanmar and meet with all key stakeholders including Suu Kyi and President Win Myint. ASEAN could also select from its ranks of skilled senior diplomats, echoing its appointment of former Malaysian foreign minister Syed Hamid Albar as the special envoy to Myanmar in the late 2000s. 

The summit should also voice support for the visit of the UN special envoy to Myanmar, as this would engage the UN and other international stakeholders.

Such an approach is consistent with the ASEAN way of holding informal and discreet discussions which can lead to more concrete steps. Although there are no quick solutions, ASEAN must play a constructive role and urgently engage with the Tatmadaw, as this process, slow as it may be, is essential to prevent the crisis from deepening.  

Although it is difficult to see a quick return to democracy and the military honoring the November election results, nonetheless ASEAN should be unequivocal that the aim is to restore the country towards its democratic path in accordance with the will and interests of the Myanmar people.

It is crucial for ASEAN to rein in the military’s gross excesses and prevent the further escalation of violence and bloodshed. While a long term and peaceful resolution is being sought for this crisis, it is equally important that human rights and fundamental freedoms are respected and protected now, so that everyone in the country can live a life with dignity, safely and securely, with their basic needs met.

The escalation of violence has also created new movements of internally displaced people as well as aggravating existing humanitarian needs, with serious consequences for vulnerable groups including Karen, Kachin and other ethnic minorities. ASEAN must consider coordinating an international humanitarian aid mission as it did in 2008 when Cyclone Nargis devastated Myanmar.  

But for that to happen, there must be a pause in hostilities, so that the ASEAN Emergency Response and Assessment Team and the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance can be called upon to coordinate ASEAN efforts to urgently respond to this crisis. 

How ASEAN addresses the unfolding catastrophe in Myanmar will have consequences on its credibility, relevance and centrality as the regional mediator. The international community recognizes that ASEAN may be best placed to lead and reach out to the military. It must make the best of this window of opportunity.

Act now before more lives and human rights are endangered as well as the peace, stability and prosperity of the region.

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The writer is the representative of Malaysia to the ASEAN Intergovernmental Commission on Human Rights (AICHR).