A cloud of uncertainty is now hovering over the 2024 presidential and legislative elections, with the House of Representatives, the General Elections Commission (KPU) and the government still failing to set the timetable for the next general election.

A clear timetable must be set as soon as possible, according to the KPU, which has proposed that the presidential and legislative elections be held on February 21, while the regional elections on November 27. The election process would need to be carried out 25 months prior to the voting day to make room for various preparations, KPU chairman Ilham Saputra told lawmakers during a hearing at the House on Sept. 6.

The meeting, however, failed to come up with an agreed timetable due to the absence of Home Affairs Minister Tito Karnavian, a representative of the government. Tito was then assigned by President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo to visit Papua to check the preparations for the 20^th National Games (PON) scheduled for October, according to Ahmad Doli Kurnia, speaker of the House’s Commission II on domestic affairs.

“Because the Home Affairs Minister could not attend the meeting in person today, we will discuss or we will make the decision later on September 16,” he said.

Pandemic impacts

The pending agreement on the election schedule came amid reports that there had been talks among politicians within the ruling coalition about the possibility of postponing the general and regional elections in 2024 because of the pandemic.

Taufik Basari of the NasDem Party, a member of the pro-government coalition, confirmed the report, saying that talk of a delay to the elections did come up in their informal discussions but that no decisions had been made on the particular issue as the House and the KPU were still deliberating the elections schedule.

The problem is not whether the ruling coalition is planning to postpone the elections but whether the pandemic would allow the country to effectively hold the elections in 2024, said National Awakening Party (PKB) deputy chairman Jazilul Fawaid.

“The 2024 elections cannot be postponed according to the Constitution. That being said, what if the pandemic crisis still drags on. Nothing is certain,” he added.

While the pandemic may be used as a pretext for postponing the elections, the lawmakers would have to amend the Constitution to provide a legal basis for such a move, specifically Article 7 of the Constitution on presidential terms.

Pandora’s box

The People’s Consultative Assembly (MPR) is only “studying” plans to introduce the state policy outlines (PPHN)  — and not Article 7 of the Constitution on presidential terms — as part of a recommendation from the previous MPR members.

“Anything outside the PPHN is not on the Assembly’s agenda,” Ahmad Basarah, Deputy Assembly Speaker, said on Thursday.

Ahmad, who is also a lawmaker from the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), said the PPHN was necessary to ensure “the continuity of the national development agenda” amid the transfer of powers from one president to the next.

Jazilul claimed that parties were almost evenly divided over the issue. "There have been two schools of thought adopted by parties regarding this PPHN. One, there are parties that think the PPHN can be regulated without going through changes to the Constitution, but through a law. And there are parties that think the regulation regarding the PPHN must go through an amendment to the 1945 Constitution," he said.

But observers have said it is likely that a constitutional amendment would open a Pandora’s box with political parties pursing their own agendas.

“The amendment process is very dynamic,” Titi Anggraini of Perludem said. “Opening the amendment process will also open up space for parties to fight for their interests, including extending presidential term limits or extending current presidential tenure to more than five years.”

Democracy under threat

Experts have said that any plans to delay elections by extending the presidential term through a constitutional amendment would mark a significant reversal from the hard-won democratic reform implemented after the fall of the New Order in 1998.

Feri Amsari, a constitutional law expert, pointed out that such a move came straight out of the authoritarian playbook and posed a danger to the country’s democracy.  

“Efforts to extend the presidential term is an authoritarian attempt to close doors for others to participate in government through elections,” Feri told the Post on Friday.

“The Constitution has mandated two terms, five years each term, for presidents. Any efforts to do otherwise only show no commitment to constitutionalism.”

The State Palace has repeatedly denied accusations that President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is pushing for a constitutional amendment to extend his term.

“The Constitution has mandated two periods. That’s what we need to preserve. This is the President’s political stance to reject the ideas of having a three-period [president] and extending the presidential term,” presidential spokesman Fadroel Rahman said on Saturday.