The Myanmar junta was barred from the last ASEAN Summit as well as the China-ASEAN Summit despite Myanmar’s position as the coordinator. Indonesia has also maintained the precedence by not inviting Myanmar to the 14^th Bali Democracy Forum (BDF), scheduled for today.

While elucidating the reason to recognize Myanmar as a member of the ASEAN “family”, Hun Sen emphasized that no ASEAN member state had the right to expel another member under the ASEAN Charter, which according to him is a manifestation of the long-upheld non-interference principle.

There has been high expectation on Cambodia as the ASEAN chair in 2022. However, its recent shift and moody position toward the Myanmar crisis has unfortunately signaled that it is still a long way for ASEAN to really undertake its responsibility as a regional organization to facilitate an effective solution to the crisis, let alone fulfilling the wishes of the Myanmar people.

During the ASEAN Special Leaders’ Meeting in April of this year, which concluded with the issuance of a five-point consensus, Hun Sen used the opportunity to bluntly tell junta leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing about Cambodia’s experience as the benefactor of ASEAN’s peacemaking and peacebuilding process when settling its own internal political conflict.

Later, responding to the junta’s protest against the decision of the nine ASEAN members to invite only a non-political representative to the 38^th and 39^th ASEAN summits, Hun Sen made a bold comment that echoed the organization’s standpoint. He underlined that it was not ASEAN that expelled Myanmar. Rather, it was Myanmar that abandoned its right and disinvited itself by not taking up the offer. Hun Sen made it clear that it was because of Myanmar that ASEAN had fallen into an ASEAN minus one situation.

These gestures certainly raised much expectation that Cambodia would become a better chair than its predecessor. Aside from Cambodia’s previous peace facilitation experiences with ASEAN, there is a necessity for Cambodia to show its ability to lead ASEAN, especially after the past failure of ASEAN to reach a joint communiqué in 2012.

This is the initial capital for Cambodia to make its chairmanship a success. Moreover, Hun Sen’s statement, as he is currently the most senior leader in ASEAN and most likely seeking to leave a good legacy behind, certainly carries certain weight.

Cambodia’s rejection of Malaysia’s suggestion to retain the current special envoy, Dato Erywan Yusof, to continue his term has to a large extent fit well with the expectations of many since the latter was indecisive, buying time and sought more compromises with the junta leader instead of pushing for ASEAN’s plan. Only at the end Erywan eventually showed his firm support for ASEAN’s decision to invite a nonpolitical representative from Myanmar to the summit, although it only came after his request to visit the country and meet with all parties, especially the National League of Democracy leaders, was bluntly rejected by the junta.

Therefore, the latest statement by PM Hun Sen certainly raises eyebrows over whether the Cambodian chairmanship will manage to deal with the Myanmar crisis according to the principles enshrined in the ASEAN Charter. Contrary to Hun Sen’s claim, the charter is silent about suspending or expelling any member state. No clause can be found in it prohibiting the expulsion of any member state. Hence, it is free to the interpretation and decision of the majority of ASEAN member states to decide.

What is clear is that the Myanmar junta has seriously breached the charter principles that require it to adhere to the rule of law, good governance, the principles of democracy and constitutional government; to respect the fundamental freedoms, the promotion and protection of human rights, and the promotion of social justice; to uphold the United Nations Charter and international law; and to enhance regional peace and security (since the crisis has posed an immediate threat to the region).

Regarding the serious breach of the charter or noncompliance, Article 5(3) says that it shall be referred to Article 20 on ASEAN’s decision-making process of consensus, and to the ASEAN Summit for decision.

In regard to the Myanmar crisis, the summit of the nine ASEAN leaders can certainly be articulated as a consensus deriving from the ASEAN Minus One mechanism since Myanmar is the problematic member. Therefore, ASEAN leaders’ decision to bar the junta presence in all ASEAN meetings is justified and rightfully according to the provision of the charter.

While PM Hun Sen can always visit Myanmar and meet with the junta, if he acts within the context of the Cambodian chairmanship in ASEAN, there is a necessity for him to consult and communicate with other ASEAN leaders to set up the agenda and the parties to meet with in Myanmar. This is crucial in order not to create an impression that ASEAN, as represented by its chair, is only collaborating and talking with the junta while abandoning other stakeholders, which in the end will bring harm to ASEAN’s credibility in dealing with the crisis.

As some ASEAN members have clearly expressed their position for ASEAN to continue putting pressure on the junta and pursue the implementation of the five-point consensus, if Hun Sen skips the frank and open discussion with other ASEAN leaders, this will certainly lead to further division within the organization, while a chair is supposed to promote unity.

Finally, the role of Cambodia as ASEAN chair next year is extremely crucial to determine ASEAN’s destiny in the near future as the Myanmar crisis will continue to be a litmus test for ASEAN’s credibility and unity. Giving mixed, or even wrong, signals would certainly jeopardize the trust from the Myanmar people as well as the international community on ASEAN.

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The writer is a researcher at the Department of International Relations, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Jakarta.