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Parties prepare for three-plus-horse race
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t least a three-horse race is shaping up as the nation’s political parties sign up for the 2024 race, marking the official start of a busy election season ahead.
Since Monday of last week, all nine parties contesting the 2019 presidential and legislative elections have registered with the General Elections Commission (KPU) for the coming general election, as coalition building remains underway.
The first party to show up on day one of the registration period was the ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which zeroes in on a “hat trick” in the coming presidential election after securing victory consecutively in 2014 and 2019 polls with President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo.
“PDI-P will determine how the constellation [of politics in the country] will go; PDI-P will become a force that will determine in which direction the political pendulum will move," secretary-general Hasto Kristiyanto said on Monday after submitting his party application.
The party has neither named a candidate pair to back for the presidential race nor has it teamed up with other parties for the coming election. Having more than 20 percent of the seats at the House of Representatives under its belt, the PDI-P is the only party that can nominate a presidential candidate without forming a coalition.
The party elite has been tipped to nominate House speaker Puan Maharani, the apparent heir to PDI-P longtime chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri, ahead of popular Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, a party cadre who has a much better electability score than Puan.
While the party has yet to begin coalition talks with any prospective partners, party executives have hinted at looking to ally with other parties as they are aware that the upcoming race “cannot be won alone”.
Political analysts believe that the ruling party’s move would eventually be a gamechanger to the coalition landscape.
The only party leader that has been seen cozying up with the PDI-P chair was Prabowo Subianto of Gerindra Party, who has long displayed an openness to the idea of building a coalition with the PDI-P after the relationship soured during the 2014 presidential race.
Gerindra leader, however, is looking increasingly likely to announce his presidential bid this Saturday during its national meeting, with his party working to seal a coalition deal with the National Awakening Party (PKB), the nation’s largest Muslim-based party. If materialized, this would be his third attempt at the presidency after losing twice to Jokowi in 2014 and 2019.
In a symbolic move signaling their alliance, Prabowo and PKB chair Muhaimin Iskandar, along with their party members, marched together on Monday to the KPU office and signed up their parties for the 2024 general election.
PKB elites have since floated the idea of nominating its chairman Muhaimin Iskandar as Prabowo’s running mate, but the former recently noted that more time would be needed before the two could reveal how their partnership would manifest.
Observers have said that their prospective alliance would be a strategic one that combines both nationalist and religious supporters.
Another lane of the race, Golkar Party-led alliance the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) has reaffirmed its commitment to sticking together to contest in the upcoming general election, despite having no strong presidential candidate to date to match potential front-runners in many public opinion polls.
Leaders from Golkar, the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP) marched together on Wednesday to the KPU office to register, in their bid to demonstrate the unity of the coalition.
The KIB still has no strong name to match the front-runners in most public opinion polls and is keeping open the option of nominating an outsider as its presidential candidate.
Meanwhile, NasDem Party, currently the nation’s fifth-largest party, stressed that it has not reached any formal agreement with other parties as NasDem chairman Surya Paloh has yet to announce his final pick for a presidential nomination.
“Our communication has been progressing with PKS and Democratic Party but there is no agreement yet to form a coalition,” NasDem deputy chairman Ahmad Ali said on Monday.
NasDem has named PDI-P's Ganjar, Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan and Indonesian Military (TNI) chief Gen. Andika Perkasa as its preferred presidential candidates, and was in talks with opposition parties -- Democratic Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) -- to form a coalition that can nominate a candidate for the 2024 presidential race.
Arya Fernandes from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said that while electoral alliances seemed to take shape, the configuration remained open for change.
“It will depend on whether the coalitions face deadlock among members over whom they will nominate for the presidential election, friction among party members and a change in the electability of prospective candidates,” he said.
He believed that it was likely the upcoming presidential elections would see more than two presidential candidates.
