President Joko “Jokowi” said on Wednesday that Jakarta would soon involve the Indonesian Military (TNI) in democracy-oriented discussions with the Myanmar junta, hinting at a possible replication of the 2017 military-to-military diplomacy that saw Indonesia assisting in Myanmar’s democratization efforts.

Two years after the military putsch that overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi’s democratically elected government, Myanmar has made little to no progress in its commitment to abide by the five-point consensus, an ASEAN-led initiative that calls for an immediate cessation of violence and a special envoy to facilitate dialogue with all parties.

As deaths continue to rise under the military junta, civilians this week took part in a silent protest calling for the end of the oppressive regime.

 

The junta’s extension of the state of emergency in response to the protests will likely delay elections planned for August, which analysts say would have likely been a sham.

While Jakarta has vowed not to let the Myanmar crisis take ASEAN “hostage”, it has also pulled out nearly all the stops to establish the Office of the Special Envoy, in addition to its TNI diplomacy.

A high-ranking TNI general would soon make his way to Naypyidaw to seek to convince the junta to democratize, Jokowi told Reuters on Wednesday.

“Security and political teams at the Executive Office of the President (KSP), as well as the briefing by Presidential Chief of Staff Moeldoko, have stressed the importance of resolving the Myanmar crisis,” KSP chief expert Siti Ruhaini Dzuhayatin told The Jakarta Post on Thursday.

“The KSP believes the Indonesian chairmanship can accelerate the progress of the [five-point consensus]. The special envoy – the [TNI] general in question, perhaps – is part of such a mandate.”

Siti added that Indonesia had a reputation for maintaining the legitimacy and credibility of ASEAN and that the same responsibility had fallen to the country again.

Both the Foreign Ministry and TNI declined to comment on the appointed TNI general.

The Foreign Ministers’ Retreat will be the first major gathering of ASEAN this year and the first under Indonesia’s chairmanship.

The nine others

The Foreign Ministry, in a statement on Thursday, said the interests of the other nine ASEAN countries would not take a back seat at the meetings.

Navigating the geopolitical rivalries in the region and ensuring the group’s post-pandemic resiliency would be at forefront of the ministers’ gathering in Jakarta, the statement said.

The meeting’s agenda included follow-ups on previous ASEAN summits and efforts to realize Indonesia’s chairmanship theme of “ASEAN Matters: Epicentrum of Growth” by taking action against possible financial, food and energy crises, the Foreign Ministry wrote.

“Indonesia’s commitment to maintaining stability and peace in the Indo-Pacific is continued through a collaborative paradigm. The ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP), which is an Indonesian initiative, [does exactly that],” the statement read.

The next stages of Timor Leste’s full membership in the regional bloc would also be discussed throughout the 2-day retreat, said the ministry’s ASEAN cooperation director general, Sidharto Suryodipuro.

While it was essential that Indonesia not let the junta’s actions overshadow its chairmanship, there was no getting around the elephant in the room, said Dewi Fortuna Anwar, an analyst at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN).

Dewi, who was part of the first military-to-military engagement with Myanmar in 2017, called on Jakarta to tread carefully.

While there were merits to using the TNI to speak “in military lingo” to the junta to advance the cause of democracy, she said, public perceptions had to be noted and responded to so as not to “send the wrong message”.

“It is very important to ensure that the other nine ASEAN members are involved in this process. Indonesia cannot be seen to be walking alone – or worse, looking like it was supporting the junta,” she warned, adding that the junta of today was a much more closed-off entity than it had been in the past.

“The Foreign Ministry must lead this process, and it must do so only after a thorough consultation.”

Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi told reporters on Wednesday that Myanmar would not be expelled from ASEAN and that a table at Friday’s meeting had been assigned for a non-political representative from Naypyidaw.