The Golkar Party, the second largest party in the ruling coalition, is weighing a proposal to merge the United Indonesia Coalition (KIB) and the Great Indonesia Awakening Coalition (KKIR), the two major alliances of pro-government parties that cover five of seven members of the ruling coalition. The former comprises Golkar, the United Development Party (PPP) and the National Mandate Party (PAN), while the latter ties together the Gerindra Party and the National Awakening Party (PKB). 

The KIB has yet to formally nominate a presidential candidate, but has listed Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo as one of its potential nominees, while the KKIR is likely to field Gerindra leader Prabowo Subianto.

‘Still very dynamic’

The Golkar Party is not ruling out the merging of the KIB and the KKIR to create a political bloc, Golkar Party’s executive Ace Hasan Syadzily said, adding that the party would continue its political communication with other parties until the closing day of the presidential election registration in November this year. 

“Since the beginning, the KIB has been very open to the possibility of forming an alliance with other parties or established political alliances other than the KIB […] Before that any changes could still happen,” said Ace, who heads the Golkar chapter in West Java. "It is still very dynamic and, of course, the authority to determine the who and the how [regarding nomination and coalition building] rests with the party leaders.”

Speculations of ruling parties using a “big tent” strategy to contest in the 2024 presidential polls emerged after PKB chairman Muhaimin Iskandar flirted with the idea of building a big-tent alliance and stitching a political bloc together with Golkar.

Muhaimin has sought to become Prabowo’s running mate. However, Prabowo is reportedly looking for more popular candidates, including Ganjar and East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa. Rumors have been circulating that President Jokowi sought to pair Prabowo from the KKIR and Ganjar, a potential KIB nominee.

 Quo vadis, PDI-P?

The Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the largest member of the ruling coalition and the only party eligible to nominate a presidential candidate without forming an alliance, has hinted at forging an electoral partnership with Golkar Party along with the PPP and the Crescent Star Party (PBB), a small Islamic party.

"The PPP and The PDI-P have a very long history. Remember that Pak Hamzah Haz was the vice president of [PDI-P leader Megawati Soekarnoputri. Yusril [Ihza Mahendra, chairman of PBB] was also a minister in Ibu Megawati's cabinet and has continued to foster a relationship with Ibu Megawati and the PDI-P up to this day,” said PDI-P executive Djarot Saiful Hidayat. Djarot, however, clarified that the PDI-P had yet to have a serious talk with the parties over the presidential and vice presidential nominations.

The PDI-P has granted Megawati full discretion to decide who will represent the party in the presidential race. The former president has given little clues on her preference, but it is believed that she has reservations about nominating Ganjar, who is a PDI-P member, and is leaning toward her daughter, Puan Maharani.

If the PDI-P decides to go it alone in the election, the 2024 race could eventually see a three-horse race with Puan competing against Ganjar/Prabowo and Anies. 

Ganjar-Prabowo ticket

Ujang Komarudin, executive director of Indonesia Political Review, said the fact that party elites had been floating the idea of a two-horse race in the upcoming polls indicated that there could likely be efforts to make it a reality.

“We can see Prabowo and Ganjar being paired to run against Anies, but things are still fluid and we have to see how things develop,” Ujang said.

The proposal to pair Ganjar and Prabowo emerged following a meeting between the two politicians and President Jokowi in Kebumen, Central Java, last week.

The viability of this scenario, however, depends on the political discretion of Prabowo as Gerindra leader and Megawati as PDI-P leader, who will eventually decide who gets to be the presidential and vice presidential candidates. As of now, the two parties insisted that presidential candidate posts should be reserved for their respective members. 

Adi Prayitno, executive director of Parameter Politik, said the Anies factor was key in the making of a big-tent coalition for the pro-government parties, who will compete among themselves if Anies is out of the equation. The big tent alliance will possibly materialize if the pro-government parties are facing a strong candidate from the opposition such as Anies, who is backed by the Coalition for Change, he said. (ahw)