T

he final conclusions of the ongoing investigation into the Bank Century case by the House of Representatives’ inquiry committee will be softer than the preliminary findings announced by lawmakers on Monday, say analysts.   

They also predicted the investigation into the bailout would not break President Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party coalition.

“The Bank Century saga will end with ‘under-the-table’ political negotiations, with the victims very likely to be only low-ranking officials,” Cornelis Lay of Gadjah Mada University said in Jakarta, on Wednesday.

Seven of the nine parties in the Century committee concluded Monday the government’s decision to bail out the ailing bank for Rp 6.76 trillion (US$716 million) was flawed and smacked of corruption.

The preliminary conclusions on the bailout will likely hurt the coalition government of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.   

The seven parties are Golkar, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN), the United Development Party (PPP), the Greater Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra) and the People’s Conscience Party (Hanura).

Cornelis said the political negotiations outside the inquiry committee had been started on the ground.

“The recent statement from President Yudhoyono ordering police to investigate tax evaders is clearly aimed at Aburizal Bakrie,” he said.

Aburizal is chairman of Golkar, the second-biggest faction at the House of Representative after Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party.

Golkar was one of the parties pushing for an inquiry committee to investigate the bailout.

The Finance Ministry’s tax agency has reportedly been investigating ten large companies that have allegedly defaulted on their taxes.

Aburizal insisted on Wednesday the tax problems he is now facing had nothing to do with the Century probe, saying Golkar would not soften its approach to the investigation of the bailout.

However, Cornelis believed Golkar would soften its final conclusions on the bailout.

“Golkar is predestined to be part of the government. I don’t believe that Golkar will continue with its oppositional stance on Bank Century,” he said.

Parties in coalition with Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party are Golkar, the PKS, the PAN, the PPP and the National Awakening Party (PKB).

Only the National Awakening Party (PKB) agreed with the Democratic Party that there was nothing wrong with the bailout.

The PKS has also said that it would not bow to the coalition deal in determining who was guilty in the Bank Century case.

The executive director of Demos, Antonio Pradjasto, said that it would be a lie to say the inquiry would not have any impact on the coalition.

“The coalition is not formed with a clear platform; it is based on short-term political interests to get power. So, parties are lying if they say the investigation of Bank Century would not effect the coalition,” he said.

“The parties in the coalition will use it to leverage their bargaining positions, which in the end, will only benefit the parties themselves and not the public.”