The political and economic outlook is rather gloomy for Indonesia in 2011, a think tank says.

Announcing the results of its political and economic analysis and research in 2010 on Tuesday, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) said 2011 would again see an orgy of transactional politics stemming from a possible Cabinet reshuffle, the debate over revisions to the 2008 legislative election, local elections and premature nominations of presidential hopefuls.

“Following the evaluation of the performance of Cabinet ministers, the President is expected to reshuffle his Cabinet and this will incite bickering among political parties seeking to keep their representatives in the Cabinet,” CSIS political analyst Nico Harjanto said.

He added that the House of Representatives’ failure to control party supporters and members’ donations in the newly endorsed political party law and the planned hike in the parliamentary threshold would only serve big parties’ thinly veiled attempt to squeeze out smaller parties and consolidate their dominance in the next elections.

“The [reformed law] leaves no room for political mavericks to be held in check or for small parties to grow. This will certainly result in the rise of political oligarchies.”

CSIS senior researcher and political analyst J. Kristiady concurred, saying the gloomy political prediction for 2011 had to do with the failure of the post-2009 election political elites to create an effective government.

“2010 was marked by increasing transactional politics among parties in the ruling coalition. After the election, almost all parties that won seats in the House were busy with political transactions, negotiations, squabbles and broke their promise to address national problems and improve public social welfare.”

Following the 2009 elections, the public was optimistic that re-elected President Susilo Bambang Yudho-yono, who won more than 60 percent of the votes in the presidential race, would be able to use his big political capital to form an effective government that would be supported by the simple multi-party system.

“This expectation did not come to fruition,” Kristiady said.

CSIS economist Deni Friawan said the economy would grow, but not as strongly as expected.

Apart from investments, economic growth in 2010 was supported by consumption to balance decreased government spending, he said.

“Economic growth is expected to reach 6 percent this year with hope that inflation can be held in check,” he said.

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