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span class="caption" style="width: 468px;">Smoking hazard: Children join a campaign to raise awareness about the dangers smoking poses to minors at the Hotel Indonesia (HI) Traffic Circle over the weekend. JP/P.J. LeoWithout a concerted effort to control cigarette consumption, Indonesia will likely fail to achieve the so-called “demographic dividend” which is expected to materialize between 2020 and 2030, an analyst said.

Abdillah Ahsan, a researcher from the University of Indonesia (UI) School of Economics Demographic Institute, said that increased cigarette consumption could tamper with the Indonesian population’s quality of life.

Indonesia is expected to enjoy its first ever “window of opportunity” between 2020 and 2030, during which the country’s dependency ratio will reach 44 per 100 people in productive age. This means that in a family with four members, three of four persons in the family would be economically capable of supporting one family member.

The dependency ratio in Indonesia stood at 86 per 100 people at productive age in 1987, meaning that one person had to work to cover the basic needs of another family member.

“I am worried that we may not be able to achieve the demographic bonus unless we take tougher measures to control the cigarette consumption in our country,” he said.

Abdillah said that the demographic dividend could be the country’s golden moment in improving the people’s welfare.

“During the period, Indonesia can have more chances to improve prosperity because while people are productive, they are less of a burden in the family, which can thereby save or invest income they earn in a more productive way,” said Abdillah.

Abdillah further said that the demographic dividend could mean a better future for Indonesia.

“It can become the source of economic growth,” Abdillah said.

Lower cigarette consumption is only one of the conditions that could contribute to the demographic dividend.

Other factors include a growing labor force, increased opportunity for women to enter the labor market and better quality investments on health and education.

Non-communicable diseases, re-emerging diseases and dormant cases of infectious diseases are three problems that the country has to deal with.

“While we are still dealing with infectious diseases, we now must cope with growing non-communicable diseases that can not only cause more deaths, but also a heavier burden of health costs,” said the ministry’s non-communicable disease control chief, Ekowati Rahajeng.

Health Ministry data shows that non-communicable diseases accounted for 59.5 percent of the total leading causes of deaths at all age groups in 2007.

Smoking is closely associated with many non-infectious diseases, such as hypertension, stroke, tuberculosis, cancer and heart disease. Cigarette consumption causes 300,000 deaths per year in Indonesia. Despite tighter tobacco controls, studies show that Indonesia remains among countries with the highest number of smokers.

According to data from UI’s Demographic Institute, the prevalence of smoking stood at 34.7 percent in 2010, up from 27 percent in 1995. Adult male smokers accounted 66 percent in 2010, up from 53 percent in 1995, meaning that two out of three adult males were smokers.

“It is now almost difficult for us to find a man who is not a smoker,” said Abdillah, adding that adult female smokers accounted for 4.2 percent in 2010, up from 1.7 percent in 1995.

The most troubling fact, however, is that the number of young smokers was also increasing. Only 7 percent of young people aged between 15-19 were smoking in 1995. In 2010, however, the number increased to 19 percent, up more than 200 percent.

“It is alarming,” Abdillah said.