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Analysis: Coalition for Change heading for the rocks
The Coalition for Change, a political alliance between the Democratic Party, the NasDem Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), is turning heads as current internal dynamics have mounted questions about the fate of the coalition.
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Anies Baswedan (JP/Abdur Rahim)
T
he Coalition for Change, a political alliance between the Democratic Party, the NasDem Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), is turning heads as current internal dynamics have mounted questions about the fate of the coalition. At the center of these dynamics is the coalition’s presidential candidate Anies Baswedan, who remains committed to the February 2024 race despite holding a ticket that hangs in the balance.
Word of the coalition’s demise has circulated for months, however, it is only recently that friction between NasDem and the Democratic Party has seemingly intensified to new heights and pushed the coalition to the verge of collapse. The friction, in large part, is said to source from the issue of Anies’ running mate, who remains undecided and undisclosed to the public.
Anies’ long search for his running mate, according to the Democratic Party, has cost the former Jakarta governor his electability that has left him trailing the other two presumptive opponents, Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo. Referring to a survey from Indikator Politik Indonesia, chairman of the Democratic Party’s division for elections (Bappilu) Andi Arief pointed out how Anies’ electability came at 18.9 percent just late last month, a number which had slumped from 24.2 percent in January, 24 percent in February, 22.2 percent in April, and 21.8 percent in early May.
Agitated, the Democratic Party argued that Anies’ low electability could only bounce back only if the coalition declares his running mate. Additionally, Democratic Party chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) said that Anies’ vice presidential pick must be quickly declared as registration for the elections is drawing nearer and that facing the upcoming election requires ample preparation.
The Democratic Party’s insistence and pressure for the coalition to declare Anies’ running mate clearly did not go unnoticed by NasDem, the coalition’s leading party. According to NasDem central executive board (DPP) chairman Taufik Basari, the momentum of declaring Anies’ running mate must be calculated carefully against his electability. A hasty declaration might help increase electability, but it could also bring the opposite outcome.
Agus is said to be eyeing the position of Anies’ running mate – a political motive allegedly behind the Democratic Party’s pressure on Anies to declare his running mate. The party’s honorary council secretary Andi Mallarangeng even went so far as saying that choosing Agus as running mate would increase Anies’ chances of winning the presidency.
Subsequently, chairman of the party’s division for elections (Bappilu) Andi Arief said if the coalition did not declare Anies’ running mate by June, the Democratic Party would consider other options to contest in the upcoming election – a statement that NasDem deputy chairman Ahmad Ali considered blackmail.
Ahmad further called out the Democratic Party, emphasizing that political parties under the coalition must remember and remain consistent with one of the points of the coalition’s agreements, which read that they would give Anies the directive to choose his vice president based on several predetermined criteria.
What’s more
As for the PKS, the party has said it remained solid in supporting Anies. Should the Democratic Party wish to take other options to contest in the upcoming elections, PKS spokesperson Muhammad Kholid said the party would respect this move. However, Kholid emphasized that the PKS would remain in the coalition with NasDem. Moreover, on the subject of Anies’ running mate, Kholid argued that announcing the former Jakarta governor’s running mate required a careful study, therefore, there is no need to rush the declaration.
Subsequently, despite unclear word on Anies’ running mate, NasDem revealed the coalition’s Tim Delapan has narrowed down Anies’ running mate to one name. For months, Tim Delapan has assisted Anies in the search for his running mate. According to the party’s executive board (DPP) chairman Willy Aditya, the name will be announced no later than July 16.
Anies himself is said to be in the process of conveying his running mate’s name to the higher-ups of the coalition’s political parties, such as former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) of the Democratic Party who Anies met on May 25.
What we’ve heard
Sources within the Coalition for Change said the absence of a vice presidential candidate is believed to have negatively affected Anies’ electability in several surveys recently. “The public wants the coalition to immediately give certainty regarding the vice presidential pick,” said one of the sources.
However, Anies and his team feel there is no need to rush in deciding his running mate. The source said Anies’ potential rivals, Ganjar Pranowo and Prabowo Subianto, have yet to announce their running mates either. “We are strategizing because disclosing the vice presidential candidate today can result in early attacks before the campaign period even begins,” said the source.
According to another source familiar with Anies’ campaign preparations, the Coalition for Change will only choose a vice presidential candidate after his competitors have announced theirs, or sometime near the opening of registration for presidential and vice presidential candidates at the General Election Commission (KPU). The source said so far, Democrat Party chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) and East Java Governor Khofifah Indah Parawansa top the list of Anies’ potential running mates.
AHY’s candidacy, however, is still facing resistance from elites within the coalition out of fear that he will compete with Anies within the government if elected. As for Khofifah, a close associate revealed that the governor is hesitant to respond to Anies’ offer because she did not receive approval from President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. “She did not answer phone calls from Surya Paloh and Jusuf Kalla,” said the source.
Disclaimer
This content is provided by Tenggara Strategics in collaboration with The Jakarta Post to serve the latest comprehensive and reliable analysis on Indonesia’s political and business landscape. Access the latest edition of Tenggara Backgrounder to read the articles listed below:
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