True or false?

Going by the actual selection process, it is obviously true because the matter is strictly a party affair.

In fact, it does not even involve members of the PAP, nor its secretive cadre membership, or even its elected Members of Parliament.

The chosen one, who will become the designated prime minister, will be selected by the so-called fourth-generation party leaders.

That's how it has been done in the past and the tradition will continue in the impending handover.

So, Singaporeans have no say in the matter?

This time round though, I believe the public will have a huge bearing on it but in an indirect though crucial way.

The reason this is so has to do with the timing of the next general election due by 2021 and the fact that there is no obvious front runner, unlike in the previous two changeovers, when Mr Goh Chok Tong and Mr Lee Hsien Loong had been identified by this stage of the leadership renewal.

There are three likely contenders for the top job, according to most reports, though it isn't clear how these names were first surfaced - Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat, labour chief Chan Chun Sing and Minister for Education (Higher Education and Skills) Ong Ye Kung.

With at least these three names said to be possible successors to PM Lee, the party is not without choice, though there are many who wonder why Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam isn't in the running.

But that's another story.

Leaving aside Mr Tharman, all three candidates possess qualities that mark them out from the rest in different ways.

But their political skills have not been put to the test because of their relative inexperience.

By this I mean the ability to win the hearts and minds of the people, persuading them to accept difficult but necessary decisions, and inspiring them with a vision of a better future for all.

In politically quiet Singapore, there are not many instances in which this experience can be gained in a way that strengthens public confidence in the chosen leader.

Except during a general election.

It is the one occasion where political leadership is called for and displayed for all to see, in the tactical fight for votes and in the wider battle to gain public trust and support.

Often, this involves making an emotional connection with the people, through the way the leader conducts the campaign, how he responds and interacts with the electorate and his political opponents.

In the Singapore context, it is both an invaluable experience for the top man as well as a rare opportunity for the public to size him up under testing conditions.

Which is why I believe whoever is to become the next prime minister has to lead the party in the next general election due by 2021.

This is even more critical in the current handover because all three contenders have such limited experience battling a GE, let alone leading one. They entered politics only in 2011, and the coming GE will be only their third.

In fact, Mr Chan has fought only one, in 2015, as his Tanjong Pagar ward was declared a walkover in the 2011 General Election.

So, in the ideal succession scenario, the PM-designate should be identified well before GE2021 and tasked with leading the party into it. Whoever is chosen must have what it takes to pull this off, or step aside.

In fact, PM Lee said so himself. This was how he put it last month while noting that the decision on his successor might take a bit longer: "If you're unable to win elections, you cannot be the leader. You can be a great thinker, a great planner, but you have to be in politics."

Founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew was well aware of this when he put Mr Goh in charge of the 1980 General Election, only four years after the latter became an MP and 10 years before he finally became prime minister.

That's how forward-looking Mr Lee was in testing and shaping his protege's political skills.

Who among the current three can do it?

I am sure PAP leaders - and certainly PM Lee - have their own views about this, but there is no better test than having the man take charge of GE2021.

The experience can make or break any leader.

But better to find out now who is up to the mark than to risk appointing someone who might be found wanting later.

The fourth-generation group will hence have to take into account the ability to win the support of Singaporeans in the coming general election when making their choice.

Which is where you and I come in, because we get to vote in that critical test.

If you approve of the choice and vote for the PAP in 2021, your endorsement will be a final stamp of approval for the PM-to-be.

If you reject him and vote accordingly, and if many others do likewise, it will be a signal of his failure to win the people's support.

It could happen if the designated one isn't cut out for the rough and tumble of electoral politics and performs badly during the campaign. This would be a setback for the renewal process, but a future disaster might have been averted.

But if he performs successfully and gets the people's mandate, he would strengthen his claim to the premiership.

The current PM can then have his wish to step down by age 70, four years from now.

Voters thus have a critical say in the choice, provided the appointment of the chosen one is made before the election and he takes charge of it.

There is a safer option, which is to not make the decision by GE2021 and to have all three candidates tested in the campaign.

How they perform could be a yardstick to assess their suitability.

But it would not be a real test if no one is singularly in charge.

Worse, the party would have to wait till the 2026 General Election to find out if its man is up to the mark. That's eight years away, too long a wait in which anything can happen to jeopardise the entire renewal process.

Better to bite the bullet and make GE2021 a defining one for Singapore's fourth PM.

And let Singaporeans have a say when they cast their votes.

============

The writer is also a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.

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