Unfortunately, under the then-newly installed Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, Manila chose not to take advantage of its victory, instead opting to put the ruling to one side to develop closer ties with Beijing. That decision arguably undermined any efforts by ASEAN member states and regional powers to pressure China into complying with international law, in particular the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). 

Much has happened, however, since that landmark ruling in The Hague.

For one, Beijing has continued to ignore the court’s ruling, proceeding ahead with its reclamation of features in the South China Sea and installing military facilities on its man-made islands. At the same time, the United States has abandoned its previous “pivot to Asia” and under US President Donald Trump it is showing itself to be an unpredictable actor in the region. Washington’s announcement that it would suspend joint military exercises with South Korea, imposition of a steel and iron tariff that initially included Australia, and even threats of a trade war with Indonesia are just some examples.