After entering mandatory military retirement last month, Hlaing, who toppled the democratically elected government on Feb. 1, appointed himself the prime minister of Myanmar. Among ASEAN leaders, Thai Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha will be the most enthusiastic in welcoming Hlaing because he has a fanatical follower in the region now.

In a meeting with ASEAN leaders in Jakarta on April 24, Hlaing was referred to as the commander of Myanmar’s armed forces. The special meeting was cochaired by Brunei Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah and President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. PM Prayut gave the extraordinary meeting a miss.

In their annual meeting early this month, ASEAN foreign ministers approved the appointment of Bruneian Foreign Minister Erywan Yusof as the regional group’s special envoy to Myanmar. Earlier, Gen. Hlaing announced Thai Deputy Foreign Minister Virasakdi Futrakul as the envoy. Indonesia had initially proposed its former foreign minister Hassan Wirajuda, and later Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi was ready to compromise by pairing Hassan with Viraksadi because the Thai diplomat had strong personal relations with Gen. Hlaing.

The naming of Erywan as ASEAN’s principal representative in Myanmar is an overwhelming victory for Myanmar’s military, the sultan of Brunei and other nondemocratic ASEAN member states. In this case Indonesia is practically isolated from other members.

As reported by The Guardian, in addition to appointing himself prime minister, Hlaing said Myanmar would remain in a state of emergency until the elections that he promised were held in 2023. “We must create conditions to hold a free and fair multiparty general election,” Hlaing said in a taped public statement, adding that the elections could be held in August 2023.

Hlaing was clearly inspired by his close friend Prayut. In his position as Thai Army chief, Gen. Prayut overthrew the democratically elected prime minister, Yingluck Shinawatra, in 2014. As a junta leader, Prayut ruled the country for five years and declared himself the prime minister of Thailand. He repeatedly promised to hold elections but then denied his own words later.

In 2018, Prayut was outraged when I wrote in a column that ASEAN should reject the junta leader as the rotating chair of the bloc in 2019. In 2019, he eventually held the much criticized general election, which, as expected, he won.

The Myanmar military will faithfully follow Prayut’s path. Hlaing will only hold elections when he is confident he will win, no matter what. But as Indonesia will have its turn to chair ASEAN in 2023, Hlaing will find it more difficult to face Jakarta if he tries to delay the promised election. Next year, Hlaing will enjoy a good moment because Cambodian PM Hun Sen, who is friendly to Hlaing, will be the ASEAN chair.

During the special ASEAN meeting in Jakarta in April, Hlaing and ASEAN leaders agreed to a five-point consensus: the cessation of violence in Myanmar, the facilitation of constructive dialogue with the National Unity Government and other parties, the deployment of an ASEAN special envoy, the facilitation of humanitarian aid and a visit by the ASEAN delegation to Myanmar to assess the situation.

The Brunei sultan was entrusted to appoint a special envoy to Myanmar, with the initial understanding that Gen. Hlaing had no choice but to accept the ASEAN chair’s decision. But it was clear from the very beginning that Sultan Bolkiah, an absolute ruler, was reluctant to get involved in the breach of democracy in Myanmar.

Only after President Jokowi personally intervened did the rotating chair of ASEAN send Second Foreign Minister Erywan (the sultan is the foreign minister) and ASEAN Secretary-General Lim Jock Hoi to Myanmar. ASEAN members, especially Indonesia, were upset because the two Bruneians called the junta leader and members according to their self-proclaimed titles. It constituted diplomatic recognition.

So I am very sure that the sultan of Brunei will call Hlaing the prime minister of Myanmar when he chairs the ASEAN summit in November.

Indonesia and other likeminded ASEAN member states can only vent their anger in their hearts. The bloc has agreed that all decisions should be based on consensus. I don’t know whether this principle is a weakness or strength of ASEAN.

The latest development will test whether Indonesia is committed to defending the rights of Myanmar’s people or giving up for the sake of ASEAN unity. It will come as no surprise if eventually Indonesia is standing alone in defending the people of Myanmar from the gross human rights abuses the military has been committing since the Feb. 1 coup.

The toppled leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, had shown little sympathy toward Indonesia out of suspicion that the world’s most populous Muslim nation cared only about the Rohingya, the minority Muslim ethnic group in the predominantly Buddhist country.

Despite the political conundrum and the raging COVID-19 pandemic, Gen. Hlaing likely cannot wait for the November ASEAN Summit, when he will hear the Bruneian Sultan call him “His Excellency the Prime Minister of Myanmar”.

What can President Jokowi do to prevent the summit host’s recognition of the junta leader? Perhaps he can only whisper "I didn't expect this" to himself. And Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi can only look away.

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The writer is a senior editor of The Jakarta Post.