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Trade surplus nosedives amid cautious export performance
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A worker loads coal at the port of Cirebon, West Java, in this file photo. (JP/Arya Dipa)
I
ndonesia’s trade balance suffered a major monthly blow in September as sluggish demand from key trading partners took a toll on export performance, particularly on “backbone” commodities such as coal and crude palm oil (CPO).
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) reported that September’s exports slumped by 10.99 percent month-to-month (mtm) to US$24.8 billion, despite increasing 20.28 percent year-on-year (yoy). The yearly growth, however, was also the lowest since February 2021’s 8.64 percent.
Imports in the same month, meanwhile, dropped by 10.58 percent mtm, but grew 22.02 percent yoy to $19.81 billion.
Consequently, the trade surplus plummeted by around 13 percent mtm to just $4.99 billion last month, albeit still maintaining its position in the positive zone for 29 consecutive months since May 2020.
The surplus in September was above state-owned Bank Mandiri’s expectation of $4.84 billion, but still lower than financial research firm Moody’s Analytics estimates of $5.3 billion. The year-to-date (ytd) surplus of $39.87 billion had also surpassed the total surplus in 2021.
Except for mining exports, which rose by 2.61 percent to $6.1 billion, all sectors recorded a monthly contraction in export contribution, with the oil and gas segment taking the deepest dive with a 21.41 percent mtm decline to $1.3 billion.
Manufacturing and agriculture exports, on the other hand, also slumped by 14.24 percent mtm to $16.96 billion and 8.65 percent mtm to $410 million, respectively.
