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US first quarter GDP growth revised sharply up to 2%
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Homes are pictured in front of the skyline of San Francisco, California, United States, on June 09, 2023. (Getty Images/AFP /Justin Sullivan)
U
S economic growth came in at 2 percent in the first quarter this year, the Commerce Department said Thursday, making a significant upward revision to earlier estimates partly on stronger-than-expected consumer spending.
While GDP growth in the world's biggest economy has still cooled from 2.6 percent in the final three months of 2022, the latest first quarter figure is markedly higher than the annual rate of 1.1 percent initially estimated.
"The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending," said the Commerce Department in its report.
Analysts had expected a lower annual rate of 1.3 percent, according to Briefing.com.
The Commerce Department added Thursday that the shift upwards was partly offset by downward revisions in other areas, such as non-residential fixed investment.
Consumption has provided a boost to the US economy, giving it a strong start in 2023 even as banking sector turmoil and higher interest rates weighed on the outlook.
This was in spite of 10 consecutive rate hikes by the US central bank over the past year or so -- to ease demand and rein in stubborn inflation -- before pausing at its most recent meeting.
"The US economy is currently displaying genuine signs of resilience," said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon in a note.
"This is leading many to rightly question whether the long-forecast recession is truly inevitable," he added.
Instead, another possibility is a "soft landing of the economy" where inflation falls to a two percent pace without a recession, he said.
- Risks remain-
But analysts flag risks on the horizon, with High Frequency Economics chief US economist Rubeela Farooqi noting that the lagged effects of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes will slow the economy.
There are also risks from "a further tightening in credit conditions, which will have an impact on business hiring and investment decisions," she said in a note.
But a strong household sector supported by job growth could help the US economy avoid a contraction, Farooqi added.
In a separate report released on Thursday, initial jobless claims slipped in the week ending June 24. Continued claims came down from a recent peak as well.
Initial claims dropped by 26,000 to 239,000, according to Labor Department figures, a level lower than analysts had predicted.
"The data are a reminder that labor markets are still quite tight," said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead US economist at Oxford Economics.
This raises the risk that the Fed lifts interest rates again next month, she added.
