old prices hit record highs on Wednesday, defying the dollar's rise, which kept pressure on the yen and the euro, while global stocks edged lower on investors' reluctance to place major bets ahead of the US election in two weeks.
Investors are also rethinking how much the Federal Reserve might need to cut interest rates after the most recent US economic data has pointed to an economy that continues to expand and create jobs.
A month ago, traders were pricing in as much as a full percentage point in cuts by January, whereas now, that expectation is closer to a half point.
US Treasuries have taken a battering, sending yields to three-month highs and pushing the dollar to multi-month peaks against the euro, sterling and the yen, which is now back at 150 per dollar levels, prompting verbal warnings from Japanese officials.
Stocks, meanwhile, are still near record highs, suggesting that equity investors are focusing more on the positives around the economy and earnings - for now, at least.
"This week’s stock market price action suggests that the 50th record high for the S&P 500 could be a tough ask with the US election so close," XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said.
With less than two weeks to go before the Nov. 5 US election, investors are preparing for more market volatility.
The chances of Donald Trump beating Kamala Harris have recently edged higher on betting websites, though opinion polls show the race to the White House remains too tight to call.
The prospect of another Trump presidency has been in focus for investors, as his policies include tariffs and restrictions on undocumented immigration, among other measures, that are expected to push up inflation.
A growing expectation that US rates may not fall as quickly has supported the dollar.
Gold has shrugged off the strength in the US currency and rallied to a new record high of $2,757.99 an ounce Wednesday.
Conflict in the Middle East has also given risk-averse investors an excuse to buy gold, analysts said.
The yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury note rose another 2.6 bps to 4.2316 percent. It has risen by nearly 50 bps since the Fed cut rates by half a point on Sept. 18 and is set for its largest one-month rise in a year.
"The Treasury sell-off has deepened this week as markets acknowledge that the Fed risks reigniting inflation if it eases into a strong economy," said Prashant Newnaha, a senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities.
"Trump's improving election odds are also tempering market expectations for the Fed to continue easing into 2025 and the possibility of the Fed moving to the sidelines for six months next year cannot be ruled out."
With the dollar and US yields on the rise, other currencies came under pressure. The Japanese yen, the worst-performing major currency this year, weakened again Wednesday, leaving the dollar up 0.9 percent at 152.45, its highest since late July.
With an election this weekend, Japanese markets in general were under pressure, with Tokyo's Nikkei down 0.8 percent.
The euro fell 0.1 percent to $1.0787 Wednesday, its lowest since early August. Goldman Sachs said in a note on Tuesday the euro could fall by as much as 10 percent in a scenario under which a Trump presidency ushered in hefty tariffs and tax cuts.
Brent crude futures fell 0.7 percent to $75.44 a barrel Wednesday. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped nearly 0.9 percent after data showed US fuel inventories rose more than expected in the most recent week and investors watched diplomatic efforts in the Middle East after Israel continued attacks on Gaza and Lebanon.
Share your experiences, suggestions, and any issues you've encountered on The Jakarta Post. We're here to listen.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. We appreciate your feedback.
Quickly share this news with your network—keep everyone informed with just a single click!
Share the best of The Jakarta Post with friends, family, or colleagues. As a subscriber, you can gift 3 to 5 articles each month that anyone can read—no subscription needed!
Get the best experience—faster access, exclusive features, and a seamless way to stay updated.