A survey from the Indonesia Survey Institute (LSI) released on Sunday showed that Ganjar is still the man to beat in the 2024 presidential race, with 36.3 percent of respondents saying they would vote for the PDI-P politician if the election were held today, followed by Anies with 24.2 percent and Prabowo with 23.2 percent. Ganjar’s electability rating rose by at least 5 percent from the 31.7 percent in the previous LSI survey, widening his lead against Anies, who closely trailed him at 28.2 percent.

“In a three-horse race simulation, Ganjar is leading by about 10 percent over his rivals, which is Anies with 24.2 percent, followed by Prabowo,” LSI executive director Djajadi Hanan told an online press conference on Sunday. “Prabowo and Anies are racing against each other or in the same or competitive positions in January 2023.”

Ganjar’s growing popularity has sparked speculation about his potential nomination by his own party, the decision on which rests in the hands of party matriarch Megawati Soekarnoputri, and other parties, including the Golkar Party-led Indonesia United Coalition (KIB), widely seen as President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo loyalists.

‘Rational’ choice

As Puan Maharani, Ganjar’s only competitor for nomination within the PDI-P, has still failed to even get a solid 1 percent of the vote in the LSI survey, questions have been raised as to whether the party is willing to risk it all by going it alone with Puan in 2024.

“Democracy needs strong figures, who are widely recognized, liked and supported by the people as voters. The greater the support, the greater their significance for political parties,” said political analyst Sirodjudin Abbas of the Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC). “I think the PDI-P will be rational. It is highly unlikely that the PDI-P will ignore a party member who has huge popular support,” he added.