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Pollster association audits two conflicting surveys on Jakarta race
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Jakarta gubernatorial candidates Ridwan Kamil (fifth left) and his running mate Suswono (fourth left), Dharma Ponrekun (fifth right) and running mate Kun Wardana (fourth right) and Pramono Anung (third right) and running mate Rano Karno (second right) pose on Sept. 24, 2024, with officials from the Jakarta General Elections Commission (KPU) during the peaceful campaign declaration for the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election at the Jakarta History Museum in Kota Tua in West Jakarta. (Antara/Herjoko Bald)
The ethics council of the Indonesian Association for Public Opinion Surveys (Persepi) is investigating why two opinion polls on the three-way Jakarta governor race from Lembaga Survei Indonesia (LSI) and Poltracking Indonesia had conflicting results on who the frontrunner of the Jakarta gubernatorial race is halfway into the campaign season.
LSI and Poltracking are among Persepi members.
“The ethics council has decided to thoroughly audit their polling processes and to ask the two institutions to give their full reports about the process, from the preparation to how they got their results,” Persepi executive in charge of internal affairs Arya Fernandes told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.
The ethics council plans to seek clarification from the two pollsters this week, said Arya, who is also a political researcher at think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
The process will be led by the council’s three members: Asep Saefuddin, a professor in statistics at the Bogor Agricultural University (IPB), Hamdi Muluk, a professor in psychology at the University of Indonesia (UI), and Saiful Mujani, the founder of pollster Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC).
On Wednesday, LSI released the results of an opinion poll on the Jakarta race showing Pramono Anung and running mate Rano Karno, who has been using the fictional Betawi character Si Doel in his campaign, as the frontrunners in the three-way gubernatorial election, overtaking Ridwan Kamil and running mate Suswono.
In the survey, the Pramono-Rano pair’s electability rating grew by 13.2 percentage points from 28.4 percent in September to 41.6 percent in October. While Ridwan and Suswono nosedived from 51.8 percent to 37.4 percent, Dharma Pongrekun and Kun Wardana still polled in the single digits. The remaining 14 percent of respondents were undecided, a slight increase from 12 percent last month.
