In order to get a picture of the trajectory of future US-Indonesian relations, we must look at broad trends in American policymaking. Of particular importance is the notion that the US needs the support of Muslim people, groups, and countries more than ever before.

This is a policy idea that most American academics and left-leaning political analysts and activists, among others, have repeatedly encouraged Washington to embrace for the past seven years.

Their calls were largely ignored in the Bush years, though times have changed. The new American administration, under the leadership of recently-elected Barack Obama, clearly thinks that this is a desirable policy avenue and is working to implement it in practice.

This shift in American policy has roots in two main positions.

First, there is a concern that a vocal and active small minority of Muslims, in protest against what they perceive to be aggressive and reckless American actions, will work to undermine US interests at home and around the world.

The second argument sees many international problems, including terrorism, as transnational challenges that cannot be solved by the US alone. America needs help from others, especially Muslims, if it is to succeed in places like Iraq and Afghanistan. And if we want any transnational solution to be sustainable and durable over the long-term, the US must participate with Muslims in formulating and executing a wide range of policies.

Together, these two arguments point US foreign policy to a clearly definable path. In particular, they suggest that the US will attempt to bolster its soft power in the Islamic world. Soft power refers to the art of persuasion, and is typically exercised via non-confrontational and often indirect means. Thus, we can expect Washington to aim to repair its image in the Islamic world.

It will likely modify the tone of foreign policy. The US will likely move away from imposing its values and institutions on Muslim countries and instead devote more effort to cooperation with these societies. And at bottom, American officials will likely demonstrate a greater sensitivity and empathy for Muslim interests and grievances.

As a first step toward enhancing American soft power, President Obama gave his first sit-down television interview with the Arab network Al Arabiya. Here, Obama emphasized the virtues of mutual respect over American policy lectures and coercion as the foundation of policymaking vis-a-vis Islamic and Arab communities. And as the world's most populous Muslim country, Indonesia plays a central role current American foreign policy shifts and adjustments.

Hillary Clinton traveled to Indonesia as part of her first overseas trip as secretary of state. On her visit, labeled as a "charm offensive" by The Jakarta Post, Clinton made a sincere effort to mingle with and listen to politicians, elites, and ordinary citizens. She lauded Indonesia as a shining example that Islam, democracy, and modernity can all "coexist and thrive together."

And Clinton even confirmed that the US would increase its role in regional cooperation by beginning the process to accede to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. In addition, as a further sign of the country's importance to the US, as well as to the President himself, there is a very good chance that Obama will visit Indonesia, his home for four years as a young boy, sometime in the near future.

The net result of changes in American policy has brought a paradoxical outcome - at least for the US. When Washington declares that it needs help and assistance from Muslim countries, including Indonesia, in order for it to put forward a successful foreign policy, it unintentionally signals that it is now politically dependent on such countries. As a result, Indonesia now finds that it has more bargaining leverage in its relationship with America. In short, the US is willing to pay a higher price, go to further lengths, to solicit and procure support and cooperation from Indonesia. Hence, Indonesia is in an enhanced position to secure manifold military, political, and economic concessions from Washington.

All of this raises several questions about future US-Indonesian relations.

First, will Indonesia use its improved bargaining leverage to its advantage? And if so, how will this impact its relations with Washington?

Second, will the US try to ignore these new political realities and pretend that it does not need Muslim support, should it not receive the cooperation it desires, and relapse into unilateralism?

Third, is this shift in bargaining leverage something permanent, and therefore perhaps a true signal of the decline of American power and influence in the world, or is this something fleeting that the US is experiencing in its relations with particular foreign countries like Indonesia?

And lastly, changes in US foreign policy, while probably pleasing to most Muslims worldwide, are made primarily with American interests in mind. When Obama makes tough decisions that favor US interests and cut against the interests of various people in the Islamic world, as is inevitably the case, how will Indonesians react? And how will their reaction(s) affect relations with the US?

At this juncture, it is awfully difficult to forecast answers to the above questions. What is evident is the overall political track that Indonesia and Washington must jointly pursue. To be sure, relations between Washington and Jakarta currently are good, and there is nothing overtly ominous on the horizon. That said, shifts in bargaining leverage can disturb these political ties in unpredictable ways.

Consequently, we need to see continued earnest diplomacy between both sides so as to reinforce trust and confidence and make ties as strong and durable as possible. In her talks with President Yudhoyono, Hillary Clinton offered an excellent sign by stating that the US is looking to construct a "comprehensive partnership" with Indonesia.

In order to get to that point the US and Indonesia should hold sustained talks around issues in which both have a stake-issues such as international trade and finance, climate change, conflict in the Middle East, terrorism, and good governance. Based on reports of Clinton's trip, these are exactly the issues she spent time on in Indonesia, which is great news. For bilateral talks today can lead to cooperation tomorrow; and tomorrow's cooperation can lead to further cooperation and a deepening of ties between Washington and Jakarta.

The writer is a Senior Fellow at the Center for Democracy Integrated Peace and Security Studies, an Indonesian-based think tank.

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