T

he world is not as it was a decade ago: before 9/11, before the Iraq War, and, most fundamentally, before the strategic influence of the United States - once the sole global superpower - faded and "the rest" began to rise.

ASEAN, the 10-member group of Southeast Asian countries, was then struggling amid the Asian financial crisis. Incredibly, it survived, but is it ready to face the challenges posed by today's new world order?

Amitav Acharya, professor of international affairs at American University's School of International Service, said the association is facing new global challenges, but has yet to resolve old regional challenges, which have long undermined its development.

"At the global level, we all know about the rise of China. It's a challenge because it changes the picture, the international distribution of power and influence," he said at the inaugural ASEAN Secretariat Policy Forum at the association's secretariat in Jakarta on Tuesday.

As ASEAN faces new challenges from the north, it also has to cope with India, another emerging Asian power.

"*ASEAN* projected a major role in regional diplomacy when China was down and India was out. But now the two countries, which have historically been major influences on Southeast Asian cultures, have come back."

China has overwhelmed the world with its rampant economic development, which has had a huge impact on the East Asian region. The Wall Street Journal wrote in a 2002 editorial that, "Whereas 10 years ago, 80 percent of total investment in East Asia headed to ASEAN countries and 20 percent went to China, now those ratios have reversed. Southeast Asia is in a danger of becoming a backwater."

China's military build-up has long alarmed ASEAN countries, which share both land and sea borders with the dragon to the north. Backed by its strong economy, the country has grown strategically more influential in the region.

The question is, what will ASEAN do if rivalry between India and China escalates? "The best option for ASEAN is not to take sides in the competition, and not to approach either power unilaterally; it has to approach India and China as a group, rather than half of ASEAN siding with China, half of ASEAN siding with India. That would be devastating for ASEAN," Acharya said.

Competition between China and India is only one threat. Acharya said people have begun to familiarize themselves with terms such as "multi-polarity" and "non-polarity" - which are indicative of the emergence of the post-American world. He said it was not impossible that a new Cold War (between China and the US) would emerge.

Rivalries and protracted border disputes among member states raise questions over the ability of ASEAN countries to act multilaterally, Acharya warned.

Indonesia is a key member in ASEAN, without which the grouping would hardly be able to prevail, but there is no guarantee the region's largest nation will continue to focus its foreign policy on the bloc. "Why doesn't Indonesia play its role in the G20 instead of the ASEAN-10? G20 is far more prestigious than ASEAN-10," Acharya said.

Indonesian Institute of Science researcher Dewi Fortuna Anwar highlighted the important role Indonesia plays in determining the future of ASEAN. "When Indonesia became a democracy, it changed the nature of ASEAN," she said, citing former of president B.J. Habibie's role in changing the dynamic between member states by calling Singapore a *red dot' and triggering discourse on the need to develop a regional security community.

As Thailand flounders politically and Malaysia and Singapore undergo political transitions, Indonesia is expected to play an even greater role in projecting ASEAN's future goals.

Rizal Sukma, executive director of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, has proposed Indonesia develop a post-ASEAN foreign policy, saying the nation had imprisoned itself in the "golden cage" of ASEAN for decades.

"ASEAN should no longer be treated as the sole cornerstone of Indonesia's foreign policy. For Indonesia, ASEAN should constitute only one of the available platforms through which we can attain and fulfill our national interests," Rizal wrote in The Jakarta Post.

But despite the challenges, Acharya said he was upbeat ASEAN, which is set to form a community in 2015, would play a major role in Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific.

"But there is a real need to ensure that the initiatives of the past decade are fully implemented and their provisions complied with member states," he said.