However, as the campaign for the White House in 2016 rolled on, her poll numbers dropped, marred by her past, her positions and her personality. She would eventually lose to Donald Trump, who many in the American media discounted, even ridiculing his motives and chances for higher office from the very beginning of his campaign. Could Indonesia’s own election be headed in this direction?

The campaign teams of the 2014 Indonesian presidential election took into account the results of elections in the West, particularly in the US, with Jokowi even borrowing Barack Obama-like tactics for the early phases of the campaign to the extent of drawing similarities between his running mate Jusuf Kalla and then US vice president Joe Biden.

Although there were many other events that contributed to their victory, the message of hope and optimism that President Jokowi ran on never shied from the “Yes We Can” vibe that Obama had so masterfully communicated.

On the other hand, judging from several surprise election results over the past few years in the US and other countries, it was initially thoughtful of Gen. (ret) Moeldoko — the presidential chief of staff — to state that Jokowi and Ma’ruf must not follow in the footsteps of Clinton to defeat (referring to it as a “phenomenon”), but he later concluded that her loss was caused by a lack of supporters going to voting booths.

This was when things started to get disorientating because it completely missed the whole point of why Clinton lost. She had a majority of almost 3 million votes in the election against Trump and although the democratic systems to elect presidents in the US and Indonesia differ, understanding Clinton’s loss and Trump’s win would serve as a backdrop to Indonesia’s own presidential election.

First, Clinton herself carried a lot of political baggage and her past as first lady, senator and secretary of state was not always placed in a positive light. She was viewed as being too close to corporate giants and Wall Street, making her seen out of touch with the struggles of the average American.

Although Jokowi never received a US$200,000 check from Goldman Sachs, it is clear that as an incumbent who now has the support of 10 political parties, a number that had doubled the original members of the Jokowi-Kalla coalition, his Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has lost the coveted “outsider” status that was its maxim after “fasting” for 10 years as a self-proclaimed opposition party during the administration of president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Jokowi has to face the harsh truth that he is now a part of the political establishment and his rival Prabowo Subianto is the outsider and in doing so he must take into account Indonesia’s political past that teaches that while a political party coalition may secure one’s nomination, the people’s vote might not back up the choice.

Furthermore, Clinton’s personality was always in question. Yes, she was a proud “policy wonk” but during the brutal campaign she was also described as inauthentic and scripted. Jokowi, on the other hand, has his trademark blusukan (spontaneous visits) in the communities and his responses in interviews have always seemed candid and natural.

However, unlike Clinton, the intricacies of policy have not been the president’s strongest suit and his lackluster performance in the first presidential debate in 2019 proved that. The President criticized Prabowo for selecting people who had served criminal sentences to run for political office when it was in fact the actions of his administration that approved the decision. In this, the President needs to have a strong grasp of policies, or at the very least like Clinton — who had changed policy positions on several occasions — know how to establish a narrative and justify the principles.

Finally, one of the other factors that the Jokowi-Ma’ruf campaign needs to take into account was that Clinton’s defeat was also based on the evolving negative sentiments that had registered within the country. Trump was able to sow division and controversy by stretching the truth and undermining Clinton and the Obama administration every step of the way. In consequence, he elevated the anger of “the silent majority”.

Prabowo, although by no means as extreme as Trump when it comes to the campaign, has established a more candid and controversial tone, with his team even using a slogan that echoes the Trump campaign: “Make Indonesia Great Again”.

In response, Jokowi has taken a more aggressive stance, rolling up his sleeves (literally) in the first presidential debate and stating that his priority was to continue working.

At the same time he made quick indirect jabs at his opponent’s record. Jokowi’s now more emotional demeanor is a U-turn from the casual and stable flow that the people saw in 2014.

Clinton also sought to change her demeanor, hoping to become more accessible to younger people and minority groups. Her strategy did not end well and Jokowi should take note of this and make sure that — especially in high profile forums like presidential debates — authenticity and a great grasp of policy must become the norms that the President should balance.

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The writer is director of policy and advocacy at the Djokosoetono Research Center. The opinions expressed are his own.

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