In East Java, the province where the group was founded and has its the largest base, a number of clerics and members, known as nahdliyin, have openly endorsed the incumbent, while others have expressed support for the Prabowo Subianto-Sandiaga Uno ticket.

Jokowi has expressed confidence he will receive the backing of the Muslim organization since picking Ma’ruf, who has since toured pesantren (Islamic boarding schools) across the country to secure support.

Ma’ruf and other NU-affiliated figures in the incumbent’s camp were especially upbeat about receiving the NU’s support, with the chairman of the National Awakening Party (PKB) — the NU’s unofficial political vehicle — Muhaimin Iskandar claiming that the party’s internal survey found that 98 percent of nahdliyin intended to vote for the pair.

However, a handful of descendents of NU founders from major pesantren in Jombang, East Java, have thrown their support behind Prabowo and Sandiaga instead, in a move that experts say could split the votes of the NU community in the province.

Those who have declared support for Prabowo include Irfan Yusuf Hasyim, also known as Gus Irfan, the grandson of NU founder Hasyim Asy’ari, from Tebuireng Pesantren and the son of late NU cleric Wahab Hasbullah, Hasib Wahab, from Tambakberas Pesantren.

Gus Irfan, who has been appointed as the Prabowo-Sandiaga campaign team spokesperson, said that he did not like that the contest between Jokowi and Prabowo in East Java had been represented as a competition between “NU” and “non-NU”.

Acknowledging that the support of the nahdliyin in the province was divided, he said, “There are maybe more NU members in Pak Jokowi’s camp, but there are also many NU members who support Prabowo.”

In the 2014 election, Jokowi won 53.17 percent of the vote in East Java, the country’s second most-populous province, to Prabowo’s 46.83 percent. Analysts at the time said that NU’s support was also split between the two, with prominent NU figures backing different candidates.

An estimated 79.04 million people were affiliated with the NU across the country, with 63.05 million residing in Java, according to a 2017 survey by Alvara Research Center.

However, the split in East Java ahead of April’s election was likely an after-effect of the 2015 NU congress in Jombang, which caused an internal rift with some clerics declaring their “separation” from the congress after the victory of Said Aqil Siradj as chairman, Alvara Research Center CEO Hasanuddin Ali said.

Among the protesting clerics was former president Gus Dur’s youngest brother and leader of Tebuireng, Salahuddin “Gus Sholah” Wahid, who claimed there was strong evidence the internal election had been rigged. He also declared that he and the school did not recognize the new NU central board lead by Siradj.

“Some clerics who lost to Said Aqil’s camp have expressed support for Prabowo, including some clerics from Tebuireng,” Hasanuddin said, referring to Gus Irfan and his colleagues.

Jokowi’s camp has relied on Ma’ruf’s credentials as a former NU supreme leader to attract votes from nahdliyin. However, Hasanuddin argued that in East Java in particular the support of major and old pesantren was key to wining over the nahdliyin.

Although the chances that Prabowo would over take Jokowi in East Java were very slim, he said that support for Prabowo was particularly strong among NU communities on Madura Island and some areas known as “Tapal Kuda”, which includes Pasuruan, Probolinggo, Situbondo and Banyuwangi.

“The clerics have their own followers at the grassroots level, so their support will have a positive impact for Prabowo around the pesantren in the area,” he said.

Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC) executive director Djayadi Hanan said that in the remaining days until the election, Jokowi needed to consolidate support from the NU as well as political parties with strong grassroots support in East Java, including the PKB and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).

“Jokowi must ensure that he gains more support from the NU, more than in 2014,” Djayadi said.

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