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Parties failed to make use of coattail effect: Experts
While much was made of the coattail effect that major political parties would get from nominating a presidential candidate, observers say early vote counts have suggested that parties had not taken full advantage of it
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span>While much was made of the coattail effect that major political parties would get from nominating a presidential candidate, observers say early vote counts have suggested that parties had not taken full advantage of it.
As 2019 marked Indonesia’s first-ever simultaneous presidential and legislative elections, political analysts and pollsters predicted that parties most associated with a particular presidential ticket would gain more votes.
This is because voters would likely cast their presidential ballot first and would thus be inclined to vote for parties that supported their chosen presidential candidate.
But quick counts conducted by several established polling organizations showed that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), of which President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo is a member, and the Gerindra Party, which is chaired by presidential contender Prabowo Subianto, both failed to improve on their performance in the 2014 legislative election, which was held three months before the presidential election.
Quick counts conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Cyrus Network, Kompas, Indikator Politik Indonesia, and Saiful Mujani Research & Consulting (SMRC) put PDI-P’s vote share at 19 and 20 percent, not far off from its 2014 showing of 18.95 percent and considerably lower than preelection predictions of 25 to 30 percent.
Gerindra, meanwhile, has garnered around 12 to 13 percent of the vote, close to the 11.81 percent it gained in 2014 and short of the 15 to 17 percent that pollsters had predicted.
Gerindra might even be pipped to second place by the embattled Golkar Party, despite the latter being plagued by leadership struggles and graft cases implicating some of its top executives.
Jakarta-based pollster Populi Center Usep director S. Ahyar said both the PDI-P and Gerindra failed to maximize their potential vote share.
“Golkar, on the other hand, has once again shown its cleverness in consolidating its political machinery despite its troubles,” he told The Jakarta Post, citing the arrest of former social affairs minister and Golkar secretary-general Idrus Marham and Golkar lawmaker Bowo Sidik Pangarso for graft as scandals that might have brought down less
canny parties.
“But Idrus’ arrest was mitigated by the appointment of [Golkar politician] Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita as social affairs minister, and social programs such as the PKH [Family Hope Program] are very popular among voters,” he said.
He added that Golkar was aided by its established traditional base and infrastructure, which it got by being former president Soeharto’s political vehicle from 1971 until the end of his regime in 1998.
Meanwhile, several midtable parties, which some pollsters had predicted might not meet the electoral threshold of 4 percent, have consolidated their positions in the House.
The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP) obtained around 9, 7, and 5 percent of the vote, respectively.
The relatively new NasDem Party has also built on its success in the 2018 regional elections, in which it backed 10 out of 17 winning gubernatorial candidates, and gained 8 to 9 percent of the vote, possibly edging former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Democratic Party to the top five.
“NasDem has been quite progressive, as shown in the regional elections,” Usep said. “It did require candidates to pay a political dowry or join the party and was ready to back popular independent candidates.”
CSIS executive director Philips Vermonte said NasDem might have also benefited from poaching several legislative candidates from fellow Golkar-offshoot Hanura, which had been riddled with internal divisions and looked set to lose its 16 House seats come October.
“Several Hanura legislative candidates who had previously been elected and were running as incumbents decided to switch to NasDem,” he told the Post on Wednesday. “Those established candidates may have also added to NasDem’s votes.”
Overall, CSIS researcher Arya Fernandes predicted that the House would be “dynamic” with around half of the seats held by Jokowi coalition parties and the other half held by Prabowo-supporting parties.
“The difference between the larger parties and the smaller parties is also not that wide now, which may lead to difficulties when [Jokowi] names his Cabinet,” he said.
