Talks over the next state leadership have started to take up a significant portion of national media platforms, even though the presidential election was only less than three months ago, and the elected pair for the next five years has not even been inaugurated. Above all the widely tipped traits of an expected victorious candidate, young age is apparently the subject of the discourse. The Jakarta Post’s Fachrul Sidiq, Novan Iman Santosa, Imanuddin Razak and Semarang correspondent Suherdjoko take a closer look at the issue.

“The battle for state leadership in the 2024 presidential election will be among [some] governors and regional leaders,” said one veteran politician in an event recently. He did not explain in detail his hypothesis, nor provide a comprehensive argument on his statement.

However, at least this senior politician has some reasonable grounds that are undisputable. The reelected Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, who will be inaugurated along with his vice president-elect Ma’ruf Amin in October, will certainly not contest the 2024 election due to a constitutional limitation that regulates a president can only serve a maximum two terms in office.

Ma’ruf himself is already 76 years old this year and it is very unlikely that he will run in 2024 when he will be 81.

An exception will perhaps be Prabowo Subianto, who challenged Jokowi in the 2014 and this year’s presidential election. Prabowo is 67 years old this year and will be 72 in 2024.

It remains to be seen whether he will run for a third time. Debates about the presidency post-Jokowi have been divided into a dichotomy between young and old candidates.

Many expect young candidates to contest the next presidential election. While there is no clear and rigid limitation about age range that is categorized as “young” and another as “old”, discourse about the presidential candidacy in the 2024 election have also expanded to candidates who are defined as “fresh”, in reference to new names, to differentiate them from those who have participated in previous presidential elections.

In view of the loose term of “young” candidates, the term “fresh” in this case is not specifically associated with a certain age group, such as those in their 30s or 40s, as it will open an opportunity for candidates who are older.

As usual, however, debates about limiting the candidacy to young and fresh presidential candidates will always be challenged by the undisputed constitutional mantra that contestation for public posts, including the presidency, is open to anyone of any age group.

As the 2019 presidential election was only recently held and the new duet of state leadership has yet to be inaugurated, discourse about who will contest the election in 2024 has been labeled by many politicians and observers as premature.

Such an understatement is perhaps true for an experienced candidate attempting another bid for the presidency.

However, it will not be the case for those aiming to contest the election for the first time.

“I think it is good for these [young] candidates to introduce themselves to the public as early as possible,” said Teguh Yuwono, a political observer at the Semarang-based Diponegoro University (Undip), in a recent interview.

A recently released survey by the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI) on potential presidential candidates for the 2024 race is evidence that these candidates — or the political parties they are affiliate with — already have a head start.

To name a few, LSI mentioned West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil, Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan, Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo and East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa as potential candidates. Others include National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman Muhaimin Iskandar, Golkar Party chairman Airlangga Hartarto, Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri’s daughter, Puan Maharani, and former president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s son, Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono. The LSI also included Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, National Police chief Tito Karnavian, former the Indonesian Military (TNI) commander Gatot
Nurmantyo and Prabowo.

Apart from Prabowo, who has contested the last two presidential elections, several of these candidates have established election campaign teams. Others have their own “media” team to promote themselves.

Yet, these figures cannot declare themselves candidates on their own initiative in the absence of support from political parties, as regulated under the 2017 law on general elections and the 2008 law on presidential and vice presidential elections.

As a consequence of the 20 percent presidential threshold regulated in the law on general elections — unless it is not reviewed ahead of the 2024 election — a maximum three pairs of presidential-vice presidential candidates can contest the next election. The last two presidential elections, however, only saw two pairs of candidates.

As a result of the 2019 legislative election, the top three earners were the PDI-P, which secured 27,053,961 votes (19.33 percent), followed by the Gerindra Party with 17,594,839 votes (12.57 percent) at second and the Golkar Party in third with 17,229,789 votes (12.31 percent). These political parties have the potential to establish three coalitions of political parties to contest the 2024 presidential election.

Teguh was of the opinion that the PDI-P had the benefit as the top earner in nominating its own members, although it would still need other political parties to form a strong government.

“If compared with other political parties, the PDI-P is lucky to have more than one member as potentially strong presidential and vice presidential candidates,” said the Undip political observer.

Besides naming Ganjar a potential candidate from the PDI-P, Teguh also mentioned Surabaya Mayor Tri Rismaharini and former Kulon Progo regent Hasto Wardoyo, who was recently appointed head of the National Population and Family Planning Board (BKKBN) by President Jokowi, as strong candidates from the PDI-P.

Ganjar, who has been tipped as a potential candidate for the 2024 presidential election, dismissed the speculation that those publicly mentioned potential figures would have the luxury of securing tickets for the presidential race.

“Member recruitment and promotion in the PDI-P is very unique. Anyone can be declared a potential candidate but when it comes to official nominations for the presidential election, it will be decided by party chairwoman [Megawati Soekaroputri] herself,” the governor told The Jakarta Post in a recent interview at his residence in Semarang, Central Java.

“So in the case of the PDI-P, let’s just wait for the party’s official decision by Ibu Mega,” he added, while referring to Megawati Soekarnoputri’s nickname.

Meanwhile, for the rest of the potential candidates, the final decision on who will eventually be declared candidates in the 2024 presidential election will apparently depend on the final number of political party coalitions established for the next election.

One thing for sure is that not all of those publicly declared potential candidates will become the eventual eligible candidates as there will only be a maximum of two remaining tickets available for grabs for those figures after the first one is already taken for a PDI-P candidate.

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