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Even with giant Masela block, Pertamina predicts gas deficit in 2035
Even taking into account rich gas blocks such as the Masela Block, Jambarang Tiung Biru field (Cepu Block), Tangguh field (Berau Block) and Sakakemang Block, Indonesia will face an LNG deficit of 1,000 to 2,000 million metric standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) by 2035, according to state energy giant Pertamina estimates.
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Masela oil and gas block (Courtesy of/maritim.go.id)
I
ndonesia will produce less liquefied natural gas (LNG) than it consumes 16 years from now as local demand moves up along with economic growth, state energy giant Pertamina says. But the government remains confident it “will never import” gas.
Even taking into account rich gas blocks such as the Masela Block, Jambarang Tiung Biru field (Cepu Block), Tangguh field (Berau Block) and Sakakemang Block, Indonesia will face an LNG deficit of 1,000 to 2,000 million metric standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) by 2035, according to Pertamina estimates.
“The deficit prediction has included the production of giant gas blocks,” said Heru Setiawan, Pertamina director of investment planning and risk.
Indonesia is currently an LNG exporter with exports reaching 1,907 billion British thermal units per day (bbtud), or almost five times the average volume of domestic LNG utilization at 405.2 bbtud. Of the country’s LNG production last year, 28 percent was exported, 25 percent for industry, 25 percent for electricity and 11 percent for fertilizer.
Pertamina’s forecast is in line with a recent report from global energy think tank Wood Mackenzie, which stated that LNG demand from Southeast Asia would grow over five times to reach 236 million tons per annum (mmtpa) by 2040.
“Almost half of that demand will come from the two major markets of Indonesia and India,” Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Asti Asra said in an e-mail. “Indonesia’s LNG demand is coming from the power sector.”
Domestic demand for LNG is expected to rise from power plant projects from state electricity firm PLN, petrochemical projects and refinery projects. Pertamina will develop at least six refinery assets in the future.
