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All provinces holding elections vulnerable to disruption
All nine provinces and many regencies that will hold local elections in September are vulnerable to disruption, according to the Elections Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu)
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All nine provinces and many regencies that will hold local elections in September are vulnerable to disruption, according to the Elections Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu). The agency urged stakeholders to devise policies and strategies to maintain public order.
An index released by Bawaslu on Tuesday reveals that the nine provinces and 48 regencies are highly prone to disruption in the 2020 regional elections.
The Elections Vulnerability Index is an early warning instrument to prevent any disruption and violations in elections.
“We hope that all stakeholders will utilize it to improve their election monitoring policies, programs and strategies,” Bawaslu head Abhan said at the launch of the index.
On Sept. 23, voters will elect leaders in nine provinces, 224 regencies and 37 cities. The 2020 index identifies the election vulnerability in these 270 regions based on data from past elections and discussions with experts.
A regency or city is assigned a score of 0-100, with 56.95-100 considered highly vulnerable; 43.07-56.94 mild and 0-43.06 low. For provinces, meanwhile, a score of 57.55-100 suggests high vulnerability; 42.47-57.54 mild and 0-42.46 low.
The average vulnerability score for regencies and cities is 51.65. Meanwhile, the average score for provinces is 73.80.
Out of the 261 regencies and cities assessed, 48 score high — signifying a greater vulnerability. Manokwari regency in West Papua ranks highest with a score of 80.89, followed by Mamuju (78.01), Makassar (74.94), Central Lombok (73.25), East Kotawaringin (72.48), Sula Island (71.45), Central Mamuju (71.02), Sungai Penuh (70.63), North Minahasa (70.62), Pasangkayu (70.20), Tomohon (66.89), Ternate (66.25), Serang (66.04), Kendal (65.33) and Sambas (64.53).
Meanwhile, all the nine provinces score high, led by North Sulawesi as the most vulnerable (86.42) and followed by Central Sulawesi (81.05), West Sumatera (80.86), Jambi (73.69), Bengkulu (72.08), Central Kalimantan (70.08), South Kalimantan (69.70), Riau Island (67.43) and North Kalimantan (62.87).
“Among the most dominant factors is the civil servants’ bias and the tendency to elect the incumbent. Also, the system for a candidate to input data is troubling in almost every city and regency. We hope the [General Elections Commission] will fix this,” said the Bawaslu member in charge of dispute settlement, Rahmat Bagja.
He added that there were already signs of disputes.
“There is a probability of 230 incumbents being reelected. This points to potential violations in the form of civil servant bias and abuse of power,” Abhan said.
To address such a problem, Bawaslu, together with the National Civil Service Agency (BKN), the Home Ministry and the Administrative and Bureaucratic Reform Ministry have issued a letter to all regional administrations, suggesting no more change of duties for officials after Jan. 8.
Other key issues to be anticipated in the 2020 elections, according to the index, are vote-buying, low voter turnout (under 77.5 percent), low public participation in monitoring elections, corrections of vote counts, lack of election organizer integrity and professionalism, loss of suffrage, revoting and recounting in polling stations, logistical problem, data inputing errors, campaign schedule violations, misuse of state facilities for campaign, parties dismissing local administration’s aspirations and conflicts between candidates and supporters.
However, as the index was based only on quantitative data, further analysis was needed in every region, the Bawaslu’s member in charge of monitoring and promotion, Mochammad Afifuddin, said.
Association for Elections and Democracy (Perludem) director Titi Anggraini said that all regions were vulnerable and should prepare themselves for disruptions, even if they had not scored high in the index, “because the vulnerability of a region is very much influenced by the candidate configuration”.
The Bawaslu index had yet to reflect that, “as we still don’t know who the 2020 candidates are,” she told The Jakarta Post, citing Jakarta as an example of a city that had not been deemed highly vulnerable yet had seen a high degree of polarization among voters in the 2017 election.
An in-depth analysis of every phase was important, Titi said. “For example, unprofessional services or inconvenient data systems could result in disappointment and would lead to other kinds of disruption. Also, pay attention to hoaxes and smear campaigns on social media,” she said.
“The index’s effectiveness depends on the extent to which the local administration, local Bawaslu office and other relevant parties respond. The key is collaboration,” said Titi. (aly)
