Entering the third week of work from home (WFH) policies being in force around the world, takeaways are evolving into a counterfactual analysis: What would have happened if the economists could have sent a strong signal?

The first logical consideration should be that Indonesia is by no means immune to the pandemic. The country shares connections with countries already hit by the COVID-19 outbreak. Jakarta’s Soekarno-Hatta International Airport is well connected with cities in China: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Fuzhou and Xiamen. Denpasar, not long ago, even had a direct flight to Wuhan. There are also numerous flights from Jakarta to neighboring countries in ASEAN including more than 40 flights daily between Jakarta and Singapore alone.

As of April 18, the pandemic had spread to all the provinces of Indonesia, with more than 6,200 positive cases and over 530 d...