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Indonesian home prices to pick up over next two years: Moody's
Moody’s Analytics has forecast that Indonesia’s home price index will rise 5 percent in 2022 and 6 percent in 2023, marking a rebound after years of muted growth.
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A subsidized housing development is pictured in Bogor, West Java, on Jan. 6, 2020. (Antara/Yulius Satria Wijaya)
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ndonesian home prices will see strong growth in 2022 and 2023, financial intelligence firm Moody’s Analytics has predicted, following a long period of muted growth exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Moody’s expects the country’s home price index to grow 5 percent next year and 6 percent in 2023. This year, the index is expected to post only about 1.5 percent growth.
This year, the country’s home price index will fall below the 4.42 percent average growth among selected Asia-Pacific countries, but the index is expected beat the forecast regional averages of 3.45 and 3.64 percent growth for 2022 and 2023, respectively.
The housing price index has seen sluggish growth since at least 2015, growing by less than 5 percent year-on-year (yoy) on a quarterly basis, Bank Indonesia (BI) data shows. On an annual basis, growth above 6 percent was last seen in 2014.
Moody’s Analytics economist Sonia Zhu attributed the expected rise in house prices to pent-up demand and favorable real estate investment policies, including low interest rates, tax incentives, and relaxed restrictions on foreign ownerships, all of which would raise demand in 2022 and 2023.
“However, the projected high growth is also due to the low-base effect from 2021. The Delta surge in the third quarter of 2021, lockdowns, and the weak labor market are weighing on the house price index for 2021,” she wrote in an email to The Jakarta Post.
The central bank is expecting housing prices to creep up still more slowly in the July to September period, largely as a result of COVID-19 restrictions imposed in response to a July case surge.
