President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo said in a speech on Oct. 13 that the government would “at some point” ban CPO exports so that the commodity could be processed into higher-value derivatives, such as cosmetics, food products and biodiesel for both domestic use and export.

However, experts, business leaders and regulators have said that high biodiesel prices, relatively low domestic CPO demand and international biodiesel trade barriers, among other issues, make it challenging for Indonesia to develop a full downstream palm oil industry.

Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) executive director Fabby Tumiwa said that plans to stop CPO exports needed to address the fact that current domestic CPO demand could not absorb full production.

He estimated that domestic CPO demand, largely driven by mandatory biodiesel blending policies, would reach only 20 million tons by 2022, less than half of the expected production of 53 million to 54 million tons in the same year.

“[CPO] export opportunities are still wide open,” Fabby told The Jakarta Post on Monday, adding that pushing for the development of other CPO derivatives for export was just as important as pushing for biodiesel exports.

Jokowi’s announcement comes as the government pursues a “massive downstreaming” policy to develop the country’s industrial capacity. The policy involves banning the export of key commodities and forcing companies to develop downstream facilities.

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