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The Indo-Pacific underwater race and Indonesia’s future naval posture
The four active submarines and a plan to procure what seems to be midget submarines will not provide Indonesia with the capacity to go head-to-head with major powers in the region.
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Naval force: Indonesian Navy officers welcome the arrival of submarine KRI Ardadedali 404 at Eastern Fleet Command base in Surabaya, East Java, on May 17, 2018. Ardadedali is one of three submarines purchased from South Korea’s Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering. (JP/Wahyoe Boediwardhana)
O
ver the past few years, Beijing’s assertiveness in the South China Sea has helped reshape the military approach in a region that is now the focal point of a great number of powers.
To no one’s surprise, China has shown negative sentiments toward other powers’ show of force in the region. The announcement of AUKUS, the latest strategic partnership involving the United States, United Kingdom and Australia, amounts to assurance that the US will remain present in the region to counterweight China’s ever-growing expansion, especially in the South China Sea.
In parallel, through the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, known as Quad, the four countries composing the group, which are the US, Australia, India and Japan, have strengthened cooperation. Even though it remains an informal alliance, China’s relations with each member of the group have tensed up, especially since the pandemic, to a level akin to the Cold War era.
On the other side of the schism, several countries have shown concerns about AUKUS, especially in light of the arms race it might trigger. Indonesia for its part has announced its apprehension and even convened Australia for a meeting back on Sept. 9, during which it reminded “the importance of Australia’s commitment to continue meeting all of its nuclear non-proliferation obligations".
Hence, the sudden move by Australia, along with the US and UK, to procure nuclear-powered submarines (SSN) is not a reassuring fact for Indonesia, as well as Southeast Asian neighbors. On the other hand, Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto said that Southeast Asian countries should remain “nuclear-free” despite Australia’s plan to operate nuclear-powered submarines. However, he also said Indonesia would respect other countries’ decision to prioritize national interests, especially when they feel threatened.
Indonesia’s status as a “naval power” is also worth questioning with the increasing competition amongst other naval powers in the Indo-Pacific region. In line with President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s Global Maritime Fulcrum (GMF) vision, Indonesia is supposed to act as a naval power to preserve the country’s strategic autonomy in the region.
On the contrary, being a medium power does not necessarily mean that the country should not seek to enhance maritime and naval capabilities. As one of GMF’s pillars is to build maritime defense, Indonesia might need to up its game to adjust to the regional strategic changes.
