“We see an opportunity to buy from Russia at better prices,” NIcke told the hearing.

What Pertamina sees as an opportunity, others may see as opportunism.

Indonesia must tread carefully before Pertamina goes ahead with the plan. The last thing we want is to be accused of busting the economic sanctions and embargo against Russia that have been imposed by the United States and its allies to force Moscow to end its invasion of Ukraine.

A related second war is brewing following on the Russia-Ukraine war. This is the economic war that is being waged by the West against Russia to punish Moscow for the invasion.

US President Joe Biden is determined to make it economically costly for Russia if it continues the war in Ukraine, and in a speech last week warned China, and by extension other countries that are not joining the sanctions, of dire economic consequences if it provides “material support” to Moscow. What this means is open to interpretation.

If Indonesia professes to be neutral in the Russia-Ukrainian war, then it should also take the same stand in the economic war. Indonesia has refused to join the economic measures against Russia but breaking the sanctions would clearly put Indonesia on Moscow’s side.

If China and India, two other neutral Asian countries in the Russia-Ukraine war, are buying Russian oil, that is because they were doing this before the sanctions were imposed, and both rely to a large extent on Russian oil. For them to suddenly cut these imports would certainly hurt their economies.

Indonesia on the other hand has bought almost all its oil imports from the Middle East, and even switching to Russia’s higher-grade Urals crude would still mean upgrading one of its refineries to be able to process it. For Indonesia to turn to Russian oil now risks the wrath of the West.

Understandably, it is hard to resist not buying Urals with discounts of up to US$30 a barrel. Indonesia is feeling the economic pinch given that the government is subsidizing much of the oil that the country burns for cars and electricity. Since the Ukrainian war, world oil prices have shot up to $130 per barrel, far above the 2022 state budget assumption of $60 a barrel.

The fuel subsidy is already sapping a lot of the government’s money and President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has so far managed to resist hiking gasoline prices, always a politically unpopular move.

Indonesia’s foreign policy is guided by values, principles and national interests. This explains why Indonesia refrained from condemning Russia for invading Ukraine but voted for the resolution condemning Moscow’s actions at the United Nations General Assembly.

Short-term national interests may dictate that Indonesia go for the Russian oil, but medium- and long-term interests may not. In his warning against aiding Russia, Biden told China that it is economically more dependent on the West than on Russia, an argument that is equally applicable to Indonesia.

Before Indonesia decides to buy Russian oil, we should calculate all the risks and consequences.