Adobe Analytics, which vets e-commerce transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to United States retail sites, expects shoppers will spend between $11.7 billion and $11.9 billion online on Black Friday.

While early online sales figures showed a promising trend for spending, at major retailers, a bulk of Black Friday shopping has happened between10 a.m. and 2 p.m. Eastern time, according to data from Adobe Analytics, with another surge expected in the evening. Many of those who ventured out said they were on a budget, fearful of overspending at a time when inflation remains above-trend and the labor market is softening.

“I’m being much more careful,” said Grace Curbelo, 67, of New Rochelle, New York, who was at the Woodbury Common outlet center in Central Valley, New York, on Friday morning. “I’m not sure how the economy will turn, and I don’t want to put myself in debt.”

Cautious consumers, higher prices

Strong Black Friday spending has been driven by deeper-than-expected discounts, Adobe said. Online shopping has diluted Black Friday's significance, with promotions geared towards the event spread across weeks. Adobe Analytics expects Cyber Monday to drive $14.2 billion in online sales, up 6.3 percent from last year, making it the biggest online shopping day of the year.

Shoppers are leaning heavily on promotional codes found online through social media influencers to squeeze out extra discounts during Cyber Week, said Vivek Pandya, director of Adobe Digital Insights at Adobe Analytics.

The specter of higher prices hovered over the day. US retail sales increased less than expected in September, in part due to elevated prices, and President Donald Trump's tariffs have contributed to this trend, adding roughly 4.9 percentage points to retail prices, according to the non-profit Tax Foundation.

Software firm Salesforce said its early data showed prices in the United States rising faster than worldwide. The average online selling price for goods was 8 percent higher than last year, compared with 5 percent globally, a sign of both the effect of tariffs and spending from affluent households, who have continued to shop while most income groups say their consumer confidence is low.

"This is the only market where we're seeing such high increases in average selling price. So there absolutely is a component of retailers trying to save margins because of the impact of the tariffs," said Caila Schwartz, director of consumer insights at Salesforce.

With unemployment near a four-year high, shoppers have also become more selective. US consumer confidence sagged to a seven-month low in November, according to economic research group The Conference Board, with fewer households planning to buy motor vehicles, houses and other big-ticket items over the next six months, or to make vacation plans.

The richest 10 percent of Americans, or those earning at least $250,000 annually, accounted for about 48 percent of all consumer spending in the second quarter of 2025, a steady increase from around 35 percent of spending in the mid-1990s, according to Moody's Analytics.

"Higher income consumers are a little more resilient, and that's why we're seeing strong growth in categories like furniture and luxury," said Schwartz.

Heather Cheatham, 50, of Lynchburg, Virginia, started her Black Friday shopping by sampling scents and hunting for Armani eye tints in LVMH's Sephora at Crabtree Valley Mall in Raleigh, North Carolina. Cheatham did not give herself a budget, and she has already purchased gifts for her daughter at apparel company American Eagle Outfitters' Aerie, stereo equipment for her son and a golf putter for her other son.

In Europe, the shopping day was marked by strikes at Amazon warehouses in Germany, with separate protests also planned outside Zara stores in Spain. Meanwhile, Starbucks' workers union also said they were escalating their ongoing indefinite strike to 26 more stores in the US on Black Friday.

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