Due to the gravity of the Taiwan question in China’s domestic politics and China-US relations, Pelosi’s high-profile trip to Taiwan, with blaring official connotation, heightened the tension across the Taiwan Strait, even across the Pacific Ocean.

Making personal political gains at the expense of the country and the people is almost a modus operandi of politicians of Capitol Hill. It is not difficult to imagine that more want to follow suit and jump on this bandwagon. China would feel violated and its people offended every time such an “unofficial visit” were made to Taiwan, and would be compelled to respond.

The US would respond to China’s move in order to embolden its dishonest claims about the “One China policy”. A squabble between China and the US would lure more and more opportunists to play the Taiwan card. Things could get worse and worse, and that would be how China-US relations spiral down to a place of no return.

It might feel absurd to think that, when the next generation studies the international relations of our time, they could find themselves in shock and awe that a conflict between two leading powers and the collapse of the globalized world as we know it could have originated from an old woman trying to wade through her family scandal.

But that’s the ugly truth. Speaker Pelosi has been struggling in a quagmire of political difficulties in recent months. Her party is having trouble securing a House majority in the upcoming mid-term elections, which means she will no longer be the third in line for the presidential succession. On top of that, her venture capitalist husband, Paul Pelosi, was arrested for drunk driving in June, and was recently accused of making illicit gains from NVIDIA stocks with inside information about the CHIPS-plus Act.

It seemed to be high time to drop a bomb, and so Ms. Pelosi did. She picked the one card that could divert public criticism about her character, the one card that could draw political support from the military industrial complex and domestic hardliners, the one card that could become her career capstone, Taiwan.

There were heated debate and political wrestling even before Pelosi went to Taiwan. To use Bonnie S. Glaser and Zack Cooper’s words, “a single spark could ignite this combustible situation into a crisis that escalates to military conflict”. The risk it entails was no secret at all.

Yet, against repeated warnings from the Chinese side, despite of the hint from the White House, in disregard of regional countries’ call for “stable US-China relations”, Pelosi’s Boeing C-40C landed in Taipei in the evening of Aug. 2.

Personal political greed could account for Pelosi’s adventurism. But apart from herself, did her trip benefit Taiwan? Or the US? Or regional countries in terms of “mutual security, economic partnership and democratic governance”, as Pelosi claimed the trip was all about?

The answer is a capital NO. There was nothing during her visit except the visit itself. There were talks here and there about democracy, security or economy. But for the people of Taiwan, none of these things were strengthened thanks to American “support”. Quite on the contrary, their democratic institutions are hijacked by secessionists, security compromised by being a pawn in geopolitical rivalry and economy sapped by the US military industrial complex. Pelosi was treated with red carpet and gourmet food by Taipei, but she brought with her no business deal, no cooperation initiative, nothing concrete except heightened tension across the Taiwan Straits. 

Nominally, the speaker’s trip was about the “Indo-Pacific region” and her itinerary included Singapore, Malaysia, Japan and Korea. However, the Taiwan leg has totally dominated her whole trip, and the end has become the means.

More than 2.9 million people tracked at least a portion of her flight online before she landed in Taipei, but what about her five-hour stopover in Malaysia? Her canceled visit to Jakarta? At the end of the day, regional countries are reduced to the backdrop of Pelosi’s show, not her equal interlocutors, even less beneficiaries.

But in the long run, it is the US that loses. Pelosi’s drama was responded to by live-fire military exercises and diplomatic retribution from the Chinese side. The reaction was natural but very constrained.

Taiwan is part of China, and it has been administered by a local authority only because the Chinese civil war ended with American interference. It is a scar that has not yet been healed. That’s why Chinese people see Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan as an insult to their dignity.

Yet the US pretended to be surprised and accused China of “overreacting”, and used this as an excuse to step up its military deployment in the region, with carrier strike group, fighter jets and additional recon operations.

On top of the operational cost and diplomatic damages, it is a stupid geopolitical move for the US. The status quo of Taiwan used to put the Americans in a very “comfortable” position. The military industrial complex makes some sweet pocket money by offering Taiwan “protection”. The National Security Agency can give China a nudge from time to time just by talking about Taiwan.

To avoid a geopolitical disaster, China has been moving inch by inch toward peaceful reunification, mostly by developing itself and building ties across the Taiwan Strait. Pelosi’s visit gave China just enough push to tip the delicate balance. With repeated political and military provocations like this, China’s patience would run out.

Pelosi’s junket to Taiwan only benefits herself, and only in the short run. People may stop talking about Mr. Pelosi’s driving under influence and insider trading for a while. But eventually, the trip will be known as the beginning of the end of the healthy China-US relationship, the horror moment when regional countries wake up and realize that they have to pick sides, the point of no return from where memories of our civilization get dominated by great power conflict.

That could be Speaker Pelosi’s evil legacy. It is nothing but poison.

 ***

The author is a Beijing-based international observer.