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Analysis: Coalition for Change heading for the rocks
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Anies Baswedan (JP/Abdur Rahim)
T
he Coalition for Change, a political alliance between the Democratic Party, the NasDem Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), is turning heads as current internal dynamics have mounted questions about the fate of the coalition. At the center of these dynamics is the coalition’s presidential candidate Anies Baswedan, who remains committed to the February 2024 race despite holding a ticket that hangs in the balance.
Word of the coalition’s demise has circulated for months, however, it is only recently that friction between NasDem and the Democratic Party has seemingly intensified to new heights and pushed the coalition to the verge of collapse. The friction, in large part, is said to source from the issue of Anies’ running mate, who remains undecided and undisclosed to the public.
Anies’ long search for his running mate, according to the Democratic Party, has cost the former Jakarta governor his electability that has left him trailing the other two presumptive opponents, Gerindra Party chairman Prabowo Subianto and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo. Referring to a survey from Indikator Politik Indonesia, chairman of the Democratic Party’s division for elections (Bappilu) Andi Arief pointed out how Anies’ electability came at 18.9 percent just late last month, a number which had slumped from 24.2 percent in January, 24 percent in February, 22.2 percent in April, and 21.8 percent in early May.
Agitated, the Democratic Party argued that Anies’ low electability could only bounce back only if the coalition declares his running mate. Additionally, Democratic Party chairman Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY) said that Anies’ vice presidential pick must be quickly declared as registration for the elections is drawing nearer and that facing the upcoming election requires ample preparation.
The Democratic Party’s insistence and pressure for the coalition to declare Anies’ running mate clearly did not go unnoticed by NasDem, the coalition’s leading party. According to NasDem central executive board (DPP) chairman Taufik Basari, the momentum of declaring Anies’ running mate must be calculated carefully against his electability. A hasty declaration might help increase electability, but it could also bring the opposite outcome.
Agus is said to be eyeing the position of Anies’ running mate – a political motive allegedly behind the Democratic Party’s pressure on Anies to declare his running mate. The party’s honorary council secretary Andi Mallarangeng even went so far as saying that choosing Agus as running mate would increase Anies’ chances of winning the presidency.
Subsequently, chairman of the party’s division for elections (Bappilu) Andi Arief said if the coalition did not declare Anies’ running mate by June, the Democratic Party would consider other options to contest in the upcoming election – a statement that NasDem deputy chairman Ahmad Ali considered blackmail.
