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Jakarta Post

A debt trap is lurking

As we have learned from the Whoosh HSR gaffe, the stakes are too high for us to realize the railway extension unless a team is assigned to comprehensively evaluate the project.

Editorial board (The Jakarta Post)
Jakarta
Fri, October 6, 2023

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A debt trap is lurking President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo gestures on Sept. 13, 2023, during a trial run of the new Whoosh high-speed railway (HSR) in Jakarta. (AFP/Akbar Nugroho Gumay)
Versi Bahasa Indonesia

S

peaking to reporters after inaugurating the Whoosh high-speed railway (HSR) on Monday, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo signaled his intention of having the consortium, which built the newly officiated railway, extend the track to Surabaya.

However, this might not be a good idea, as the Whoosh HSR project connecting Jakarta and Bandung has already burdened the state budget, even though it was originally designed under a business-to-business mechanism. There is a risk that expanding the line to Surabaya will exacerbate the financial burden that may eventually plunge the country into a debt trap.

We agree with Jokowi’s argument that the 800-kilometer track connecting Jakarta and Surabaya will accelerate mobility. A Jakarta-Surabaya HSR would cut the travel time between the country's two largest cities from 10-13 hours to only four hours.

In his remarks, the President said he would receive the complete feasibility study on extending the HSR to Surabaya within two weeks, and the decision on the project extension will depend on the feasibility study.

It would make the most sense if PT Kereta Cepat Indonesia China (KCIC), the consortium that operates the Whoosh HSR, gets the priority in the tender to build the line bound for Surabaya. The fact that China is Indonesia's largest and most important trading partner and investment source should also be taken into consideration.

After numerous delays, Jokowi officiated the railway, which was recently named "Whoosh", on Monday in a launch event in which he, First Lady Iriana, various cabinet ministers and other guests rode on the HSR.

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Behind the merriment of the long-awaited event, however, we should remember the inconvenient truth of the flagship project, dubbed one of Jokowi’s legacies.

The 142-km railway had an initial cost of US$6.07 billion and was planned to be completed within four years of September 2015, when Jokowi decided to award the project to China instead of Japan, which had submitted its feasibility study and financing scheme.

In 2014, Japan offered to cover 75 percent of the cost in long-term and soft loans. The project was estimated to cost $6.2 billion. Its interest rate was just 0.1 percent, and the loan term was 40 years. Repayment would start 11 years after the railway began operations. 

Jokowi chose China because he disliked Japan's government-to-government financing scheme, and preferred China’s business-to-business system. In the end, however, taxpayers will pay a high price for the pride of being the first ASEAN country to operate an HSR.

The project was completed four years behind schedule, resulting in a more than 20 percent overrun cost. Therefore, the government bowed to China's demand to provide a government guarantee for the project loan, which is precisely the reason why Jokowi rejected Japan’s proposal.

Now that the railway has been launched, Jokowi should reflect on what went wrong with the project. As we have learned from the Whoosh HSR gaffe, the stakes are too high for us to realize the railway extension unless a team is assigned to comprehensively evaluate the project.

We call on the President to exercise restraint and avoid making a rushed decision such as extending the HSR to Surabaya before such a team completes its work.

We also urge the President to demand a complete feasibility study and detailed financing scheme, and to consult not only his ministers but also experts to make sure the extension project would not lead Indonesia into a debt trap.

However, considering that President Jokowi will end his second and final term in about a year, it would be much wiser if he lets the next government decide on the Jakarta-Surabaya HSR project.

In his final year of presidency, Jokowi should focus on continuing the construction of the Nusantara Capital City (IKN), another one of his legacies.

We cannot afford to repeat the mistakes committed in the Whoosh HSR. As the saying goes, even a donkey doesn't fall in the same hole twice.

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