Gibran is different for many reasons. If he wins the election as running mate to Prabowo Subianto, he will be more than a “spare tire”, a description that Indonesians like to give to all vice presidents in the past for their role as nothing more than a reserve to support the president.

More reason to watch out for Gibran is that all opinion surveys put the Prabowo-Gibran ticket in the lead, and the possibility of them winning the election in a single round, without a runoff.

Gibran, 36, is the eldest son of incumbent President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. If he is elected, he will not only represent his father’s interests, but will also act on his behalf. This will be a continuation of Jokowi’s rule, after he earlier failed to get the Constitution amended to allow him to run for a third term.

When Jokowi steps down from office in October 2024, do not count on him leaving the political stage. He will still somehow be in control, through his son Gibran, and through Prabowo, currently his defense minister.

Prabowo, 72, is the one candidate who has promised to continue all the programs and policies that Jokowi has built during his two terms. As such, he is the beneficiary of the support from the millions of Jokowi loyalists who will follow his instructions as to which presidential candidate and which party to vote for in February. After Prabowo picked Gibran as his running mate last month, his standing in opinion surveys soared, at the expense of former Central Java governor Ganjar Pranowo. Such is the power or attraction of Gibran, or more likely, his father.

On Friday night, voters will have a closer glimpse of Gibran in the first of two debates pitting vice presidential candidates organized by the General Elections Commission (KPU). He will be tested on his communications skills, his delivery, his mastery of issues and how he handles pressure and criticism from the more senior Muhaimin, who is chair of the National Awakening Party (PKB) and Mahfud, currently Jokowi’s coordinating political, legal and security affairs minister.

In the past, voters tended to give the televised debates between VP candidates a miss. Not this time around, thanks to the Gibran factor.

The stakes in these debates -- the presidential candidates themselves must go through three of them -- are high. Many young voters, including those voting for the first time, are still not committed to any candidate. How these debates play out can help make their minds up and they could upset all the predictions about an imminent Prabowo-Gibran victory. A recent survey by Kompas media outlet put the number of undecided voters as high as 29 percent.

Critics of the regime will lap at every opportunity from Gibran’s failings and weaknesses in the debate, but he will not have a shortage of supporters, including influencers, who will defend him and will launch a counterattack on social media. Prabowo may have lost the first round of the presidential debate last week against the more articulate Ganjar and former Jakarta governor Anies Baswedan, but he and his supporters have prevailed on social media.

No other vice presidential candidates have attracted so much attention in the history of Indonesian elections. The nearest was probably Mohammad Hatta, vice president to Sukarno, but circumstances were very different then. They were appointed to the post by acclamation after they jointly proclaimed Indonesia’s independence on Aug. 17, 1945, shortly after Japan surrendered in World War II. Hatta resigned in 1956 because of policy differences with Sukarno, who went on to rule until he was deposed by the military in 1966. This was a relationship between two equals, and one of them had to step down eventually because they continued to disagree on many issues.

Soeharto had six vice presidents during his 32-year reign, one of them was the widely respected Sultan Hamengku Buwono IX who helped to give him credibility despite his tyrannical rule. All of them however historically went down as “spare tires” to Soeharto.  The last one, BJ Habibie assumed the presidency by default when Soeharto abruptly announced he was stepping down in the face of the massive people’s power movement in 1998, just two months after his reelection.

Megawati Soekarnoputri was another “spare tire” vice president who automatically got promoted by default when president Abdurrahman Wahid was impeached in 2001.

Jusuf Kalla may have gone down as the most effective vice president, to president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in 2004-2009 and President Jokowi in 20014-2019, but that was as far as his power went. When he challenged Yudhoyono in 2009, he came a distant third to the incumbent and Megawati.

Gibran, if elected with Prabowo, will consolidate the place of the Jokowi political dynasty. The small furniture entrepreneur plunged into politics for the first time when he was elected mayor of Surakarta in 2005, moved to become Jakarta governor in 2012, and was elected the president in 2014. He helped Gibran get elected as mayor of Surakarta, and son-in-law Bobby Nasution as mayor of Medan in North Sumatra. Last month, he got his youngest son Kaesang Pangarep to take the chairmanship of the new Indonesian Solidary Party (PSI) only two days after joining.

Jokowi had family help in ensuring Gibran won the VP nomination, circumventing the minimum age of 40 years under the electoral law. Last month, the Constitutional Court ruled an exception that allowed anyone who has served as an elected regional head to run for president or vice president. The rule came out just a week before nominations closed. The chief of the court, Anwar Usman, has since been removed from the post for a gross ethical breach. But the exception remains. Anwar is married to Jokowi’s younger sister.

Gibran has his own appeal to voters, particularly millennials and Gen. Z, including first-time voters. Since his formal nomination, he has been described as the candidate who represents the interests of young people. He combines well with Prabowo, who is twice his age.

What remains unclear is the deal that Prabowo and Jokowi struck, the extent to which Jokowi will have a say in the next Prabowo government, either through a post created specially for him, possibly a senior minister, or through Gibran, the vice president. This will only become clear after the election.

Another factor in why it is important to pay heed to Gibran is Prabowo’s age and his health. Just as happened with Habibie in 1998, and Megawati in 2001, Gibran will move to the number one office by default should anything happen to the president. But power can be intoxicating, and once elected, Prabowo may be invigorated and regain his health.

So many possible scenarios for political pundits to explore and debate about Gibran’s candidacy. For now, let us enjoy the TV show on Friday night.

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The writer is senior editor of The Jakarta Post.