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'If only': ASEAN, China must resume talks over SCS code of conduct
“If only” isn’t a good basis for designing foreign policy, but ASEAN and China both need to look beyond the current tensions in the South China Sea at the bigger, far-reaching picture of the region’s future to decide if they want peace and if so, how they’re going to get there, together.
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China Coast Guard vessels (left) fire a water cannon on March 5, 2024 toward Philippine resupply vessel Unaizah May 4 as it sails to Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea. (Reuters/Adrian Portugal)
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f only China and ASEAN had concluded their negotiations on a binding code of conduct on the South China Sea (SCS), we would not be worried so much today about the tensions rising between ASEAN member the Philippines and China in the strategic waterway.
As it stands now, geopolitical developments are potentially leading to war as both sides double down on their claims over the disputed Scarborough Shoal through military reinforcements.
Last week, the Philippines held a joint military drill in the maritime area with the United States, Japan and Australia. Not far off, China held a combat naval patrol during the same week.
Clearly if war breaks out, it will draw in many more nations than just the two in the dispute.
“If only” is not a good basis for foreign policy, but at this stage of the row between the Philippines and China, it still serves as a reminder of a possible way out of the impasse.
For ASEAN and particularly Indonesia, which initiated drafting the agreement on the code of conduct, it is a reminder that there is still time to get all parties together to complete the negotiations and sign the document before it’s too late; meaning, before war erupts with all its devastating consequences for countries in the region and beyond.
If the Code of Conduct on the South China Sea is signed, it will compel all parties to refrain from using force in resolving territorial disputes.
