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The most compelling call to arms yet for extremists

The prolonged Israel-Palestine conflict has increasingly become a rallying cry for extremist groups worldwide, including in Indonesia, where a revolving door effect as a result of the 2018 Counterterrorism Law has contributed to recidivism and radicalization.

Manzar Zaidi (The Jakarta Post)
Lancashire, United Kingdom
Fri, July 12, 2024

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The most compelling call to arms yet for extremists Members of the police’s Densus 88 counterterrorism squad stand with Dananjaya Erbening (center, with white mask) during his arrest on Aug. 14, 2023 at his house in Bekasi, West Java, where they also seized dozens of firearms. (Antara/Fakhri Hermansyah)

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gus Sujatno, alias Abu Muslim, an alleged member of Jemaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), was freed from prison in 2021 after he was convicted in 2017 for taking part in a plot to carry out a terrorist attack. On Dec. 7, 2022, he carried out a terrorist attack on a police station in Bandung, West Java.

Relapsed ex-terrorists are, in fact, not an uncommon occurrence in Indonesia. According to a research that analyzed data from such incidents, at least 94 former prisoners, or 11.39 percent of those released overall, resumed terrorist-related activities between 2002 and 2020.

Indonesia empowered its authorities to carry out preemptive strikes against suspected extremists after implementing a stronger counterterrorism law in 2018. This led to the detention of numerous people, including nonviolent offenders, who were frequently given brief sentences of two to three years, creating a revolving door effect in which they were freed from jail with little to no in-prison therapy and very little post-release supervision.

More than 120 convicted terrorists were freed before the end of 2020 and 150 more were scheduled for release in 2021. Many received light sentences for nonviolent extremist activities. It is not known exactly how many have reverted to extremist tendencies.

Why do such people revert to terrorism? This phenomenon, called recidivism, has been linked to a number of characteristics, such as high rates of radicalism among inmates, the impact of militant family members and potent ideological notions.

Recidivism is frequently influenced by individual factors such as social standing, the need for acceptance and familial pressure. For example, ex-offenders may return to terrorism as a way to honor previous allies or due to pressure from extremist relatives. Reputation and status are also important, especially for inmates who are acknowledged as leaders.

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Such alluring ideas have in the past included an invitation extended to Indonesian radicals to emigrate to Islamic State (IS), to the Mujahidin of Eastern Indonesia (MIT) and to the concept of jihad tamkin (jihad in the service of Islamic rule).

Given their larger threat compared to noncombatant returnees, the recidivists who were deported after attempting to join IS abroad are even more concerning. The fact that hijra (migration) is no longer a possibility and that proximate targets are the only targets after the fall of IS leads to the assumption that many such Indonesian radicals can be expected to turn inward toward the country.

The reported durations whereby relapses occurred in Indonesia are disconcerting. In the case of Agus, it took less than two years, as it did for more than half of relapsing deportees at that time.

Online terrorist content and chat rooms have been held accountable for this phenomenon, but in reality, no one has conducted robust research into why exactly this happens in Indonesia; most information is anecdotal or based on minimal datasets.

According to research released in April 2020, there is less recidivism among terrorists than is often believed, with a few high-profile incidents skewing the picture. But concerns regarding the success of Indonesia's deradicalization initiatives grow with each new event involving a former prisoner.

Independent analyses have refuted the claim of the National Counterterrorism Agency (BNPT) that there have been only three terrorist recidivists since 2002. According to a report, the BNPT has downplayed the severity of the issue.

The above study posits that the earliest terrorist activities committed by Indonesian recidivists ranged widely and included significant acts of terrorism, such as the Makassar bombing and the first Bali bombing, both in 2002. Second crimes, however, were mostly associated with three groups: pro-IS activities, participation in the 2010 Aceh training camp and support for the MIT in Poso. Around 85 percent of recurrent infractions were attributed to these clusters.

Poso has been a major source of issues. Extremist organizations like Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) used the regency in Central Sulawesi as its base of operations from 2000 to 2007. After 2009, Poso served as a base for the MIT and an extremist training facility. Poso's allure stems from its historical relevance and ongoing jihad since 2000.

However, there is a new and extremely potent driver for recidivism and radicalization on the horizon: The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a prolonged and complex geopolitical struggle, has significant implications far beyond the immediate region.

The media is showing what is widely construed as a genocidal campaign, and this conflict has now, more than ever, increasingly become a rallying cry for extremist groups worldwide that leverage the situation to recruit, radicalize and justify acts of violence. Graphic images and videos from the conflict zone are disseminated rapidly, evoking strong emotional responses and reinforcing the extremist narrative.

Indonesia's founding fathers, particularly Sukarno, were vocal supporters of Palestinian independence, seeing parallels between their national aspirations and those of Palestinians. At the United Nations and other international forums, Indonesia has been a staunch advocate for Palestinian rights, condemning Israeli actions and calling for a two-state solution.

The Indonesian populace, including the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) and Muhammadiyah, one of the country’s largest Islamic organizations, frequently issues statements and organize events in solidarity with Palestine.

Indonesia, with its significant Muslim population, has a historical and cultural connection to the Palestinian cause. The government and various civil society groups have consistently voiced support for Palestinian independence, reflecting a broader sentiment among the populace. Indonesian extremists have been known to travel to conflict zones in the Middle East, including Palestine, to receive training and participate in what they perceive as jihad.

The ongoing conflict serves as a continual source of inspiration and justification for such actions. Even the opponents of Palestine are hard-pressed to defend current Israeli actions there. What might be the result for Indonesian extremists looking to vindicate their stances?

While the majority of Indonesian support for Palestine is peaceful and rooted in humanitarian concerns, there is a darker dimension involving Indonesian extremists. The ongoing conflict in Palestine serves as a continual source of inspiration and justification for such actions.

Extremist groups in Indonesia, such as JI, have historically drawn ideological and operational inspiration from the Palestinian struggle. The narrative of defending fellow Muslims against perceived aggression resonates deeply with these groups, motivating them to support the cause through violent means. Even more importantly, the images airing daily on TV provide vindication to these organizations that their stances are right and to some extent, put a strain on the arguments of pacifist voices in favor of negotiation and peaceful settlements.

The recent surge in violence and continuing Israeli settlement activities must have intensified the feelings of anger and frustration among Indonesian extremists. The inability of the international community to resolve the conflict and perceived injustices further embolden these extremists, who see their violent actions as vindicated and necessary.

This creates a dangerous cycle whereby the conflict in Palestine fuels extremism in Indonesia, which in turn seeks to perpetuate the conflict through support for militant activities.

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The writer is a counterterrorism and counter-extremism analyst and a lecturer in policing and criminal investigation at the University of Central Lancashire.

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