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Analysis: Tensions ahead of Jokowi-Prabowo transition
The two men have agreed to dispense with the need for a transitional team.
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President Joko “Jokowi“ Widodo (center) awards Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto (right) the rank of honorary four-star general in Jakarta on Feb. 28, 2024. (AFP/Bay Ismoyo)
P
resident Joko “Jokowi” Widodo and defense minister Prabowo Subianto have gone to great lengths these past weeks to publicly dismiss rumors of a growing rift between them ahead of the Oct. 20 transfer of power. But as they lavish praise on one another, and no matter how hard they try to show unity, they cannot conceal tensions coming from policy differences, priorities and contrasting leadership styles that have sparked those rumors.
The two men have agreed to dispense with the need for a transitional team. Since Prabowo and his Gerindra Party are already part of Jokowi’s coalition government, why create one? In the last two months, Jokowi has added a few more Gerindra politicians to the cabinet who will help oversee the transfer of power. There have been a lot of accommodations between the outgoing and incoming presidents to ensure a smooth transition.
But this transition is anything but, with its changing power relations dynamics. Both men know this is not a relationship between two equals. Jokowi has all the powers conferred on the president and Prabowo as his minister is a servant, a very loyal one. Come Oct. 20, Prabowo, winner of the February presidential elections, will be the stronger of the two.
Even if Jokowi will have some role in the next government, he will be the lesser power. He will continue to exert influence in Prabowo’s administration, either through his 36-year-old son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, who is going to be the next vice president, or through the Golkar Party, which he now controls, and which will be the second-largest party in Prabowo’s coalition government. Count on Jokowi being there, although in what official capacity is very much dependent upon Prabowo, who will soon be calling most of the shots.
One area of tension emerging is the future of Nusantara, the new city being built on forest land in East Kalimantan, which, once ready, will be the country’s new capital to replace Jakarta, a project that Jokowi started, and which will be one of the most visible legacies of his 10-year rule.
While Prabowo has openly pledged to continue the project, he is not going to allocate as much money out of the government budget as Jokowi has. In the 2025 draft budget beginning on Jan. 1, the Nusantara project will receive a mere Rp 143 billion (US$9.28 million), a miniscule sum compared to Rp 42.5 trillion Jokowi has spent until July. The project has already suffered long delays, forcing the government to postpone sending the first batch of civil servants to Nusantara originally planned for this month.
Ironically, the budget plan was prepared and unveiled to the public by Jokowi as the sitting president in August. Helping to draft the budget was Thomas Djiwandono, a nephew of Prabowo and a key Gerindra member, whom Jokowi recruited in July as deputy finance minister.
