TheJakartaPost
Please Update your browser
Your browser is out of date, and may not be compatible with our website. A list of the most popular web browsers can be found below.
Just click on the icons to get to the download page.
Analysis: Either Ridwan or Pramono will lead Jakarta, Prabowo doesn’t mind
Change text size
Gift Premium Articles
to Anyone
Share the best of The Jakarta Post with friends, family, or colleagues. As a subscriber, you can gift 3 to 5 articles each month that anyone can read—no subscription needed!
Jakarta gubernatorial candidates Ridwan Kamil (fifth left) and his running mate Suswono (fourth left), Dharma Ponrekun (fifth right) and running mate Kun Wardana (fourth right) and Pramono Anung (third right) and running mate Rano Karno (second right) pose with officials from the Jakarta General Elections Commission (KPU) during the peaceful campaign declaration for the 2024 Jakarta gubernatorial election at the Jakarta History Museum in Kota Tua in West Jakarta, on Sept. 24. (Antara/Herjoko Bald)
J
akarta voters will decide their leaders for the next five years during the simultaneous regional elections on Nov. 27. The upcoming race will feature an independent contender known to peddle conspiracies, a former West Java governor backed by the bloated government coalition and a former minister endorsed by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P).
The PDI-P's pick for the Jakarta governorship had caused quite a stir as it previously considered nominating popular Anies Baswedan, the opposition figure who lost this year's presidential election to Prabowo Subianto. Ultimately choosing to endorse its own candidate, Pramono Anung, has led analysts to believe that the PDI-P decided to play it safe as President Prabowo Subianto predictably retained a number of his predecessor Joko "Jokowi" Widodo's allies in his administration, including in the Red and White Cabinet.
Pramono was formerly a cabinet secretary in Jokowi's administration and among the hundreds of others who turned up at Prabowo's residence in South Jakarta when the president-elect was preparing his roster of ministers, deputy ministers and chiefs of state institutions. While some speculated that Pramono's visit reflected Prabowo's endorsement of his gubernatorial bid, Pramono brushed off the rumors and said he met Prabowo for silaturahmi (strengthening kinship).
Meanwhile, the big-tent Indonesia Onward Coalition (KIM), consisting of all the other major parties apart from the PDI-P, has nominated Golkar Party politician Ridwan Kamil for the Jakarta governorship. Although Prabowo's volunteers have rallied behind Ridwan and his running mate Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) executive Suswono, Prabowo himself won't have to throw his weight behind a particular candidate because even if Jakarta's top job goes to Pramono, he could serve as a strategic bridge to PDI-P chairwoman Megawati Soekarnoputri who, until now, has yet to announce the party’s stance vis-à-vis the government.
Different pollsters have had contrasting views on electability. The most recent opinion poll published by Jakarta-based Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI) in early October, for example, reported that Pramono and his running mate, actor-turned-politician Rano Karno, overtook Ridwan and Suswono in ratings, the former with 41.6 percent and the latter with 37.4 percent. The independent candidate pair, Dharma Pongrekun and Kun Wardana, on the other hand, trail behind with 6.6 percent.
Poltracking Indonesia, however, released a survey conducted within a similar timeframe suggesting that Ridwan and Suswono could potentially win the Jakarta election within a single round of voting, having achieved an electability rating of 51.6 percent. Pramono and Rano ranked second with 36.4 percent, while Dharma and Kun placed last with 3.9 percent.
The statistically significant differences in the results of the two polls have prompted the ethics council of the Indonesian Association for Public Opinion Surveys (Persepi), both firms of which are members, to conduct an investigation into the matter and is currently awaiting clarification from the two institutions. According to Saiful Mujani, a member of the ethics council and founder of pollster Saiful Mujani Research and Consulting (SMRC), if either of the institutions are found to have committed serious ethics violations, they would be sanctioned by being removed from the association.
