During the Trump administration part 2, Indonesia should continue to prioritize capability-building and defense transformation, essential for strengthening its deterrence, particularly in managing regional dynamics such as those in the South China Sea.
espite facing criminal convictions, assassination attempts and changes in political opposition, Donald Trump secured a resounding victory in the 2024 United States election. His triumph marked one of the most remarkable political comebacks in US history.
Prior to his inauguration as the 47th president of the US, Trump’s rhetoric had already stirred significant concern across the world. He ramped up threats to gain control over Greenland and the Panama Canal, impose tariffs on Mexico and “integrate” Canada into the US.
While seemingly eager to consolidate US influence over its immediate neighbors, Trump’s foreign policy might as well be indifferent toward Southeast Asia. His nominee for Secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth, was unable to name the ASEAN member states when questioned by the US Senate. As a result, questions arise regarding the future direction of US foreign policy under the second Trump administration and the prospects for bilateral defense cooperation between Indonesia and the US.
For Indonesia, the beginning of the Trump era coincides with a new leadership under Prabowo Subianto. In his first 100 days in office, Prabowo adopted a more assertive foreign policy, surpassing the approach of his predecessors. This included launching the “Good Neighbor Policy” and engaging in “hyperactive” diplomacy, exemplified by visits to six countries across Asia, the Americas, Europe and the Middle East within just 15 days in November 2024.
Additionally, Prabowo appears willing to push the boundaries of Indonesia’s traditional “free and active” foreign policy by engaging more deeply with China, including joining BRICS and pursuing a “joint development” agreement, a term typically used between nations with overlapping territorial claims, which Indonesia and China are not. Furthermore, Indonesia kick-started bilateral military exercises with both China and Russia.
Looking ahead, Indonesia will likely need to adjust its defense strategy in response to the evolving US administration. Trump’s foreign policy has been characterized by its transactional nature, prioritizing US interests over alliances or shared values. This has contributed to an intensifying rivalry between the US and China, along with other “revisionist” states or groupings that challenge American hegemony.
For example, Trump recently proposed imposing a 60 percent tariff on Chinese imports and threatened a 100 percent tariff on all BRICS members if they continued with their push for de-dollarization. This raises questions about the potential consequences for defense relations between Jakarta and Washington, following Indonesia’s accession to BRICS earlier this month.
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