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Will ASEAN survive the Trump doctrine?
Trump's preference for a bilateral over multilateral agreements undermines ASEAN’s bargaining position to negotiate as a unite bloc.
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An official arranges the ASEAN flag ahead of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Retreat in Langkawi, Malaysia, on Jan. 17, 2025. (Reuters/Hasnoor Hussain)
T
he return of United States President Donald Trump and his distinctive foreign policy, the Trump Doctrine, will recast Southeast Asia’s political landscape. America First and a hard stance on China will shape US diplomacy into a transactional diplomacy, strain ASEAN’s unity, complicate Indonesia’s balancing act and leave Thailand in a vulnerable position in economic and security strategies.
In contrast to the last administration, which stressed working through multilateral forums, Trump prefers bilateral negotiations, economic nationalism and a confrontation with China. That will challenge ASEAN’s tradition of consensus and regional autonomy.
For Southeast Asia, Trump's return is a challenge and an opportunity. His protectionism and China tariffs could disrupt regional supply chains but can also invite more investments to flow into ASEAN.
However, his preference for bilateral over multilateral agreements undermines ASEAN’s bargaining position to negotiate as a united bloc, making it even more challenging for its member countries to navigate intensifying competition between Washington and Beijing. For Indonesia and Thailand, this new reality risks particularly high stakes.
In his first few weeks in office, Trump has already curtailed programs at USAID in Southeast Asia, a reflection of a reduced US role in regional development. All these actions speak to a transactional worldview and force governments to scramble to fill funding gaps while opening space for China to expand its influence.
Indonesia has long balanced its security ties with the US and its economic ties with China. With a second term of Trump, its balancing act will become increasingly tenuous, Jakarta will have to make clearer stands on its key regional battles, most prominently in the South China Sea.
As ASEAN’s most significant player and largest economy, Indonesia stands at a crossroads. No longer a matter of whether it will become a leadership player in ASEAN, but whether it can even maintain a balancing act and position of neutrality.
