The TNI’s restructuring and promotions for Prabowo’s aides, announced during a grand parade on Sunday in Bandung, West Java , only reinforced public fears about the looming reincarnation of militarism. Among those honored were figures linked to human rights violations before the 1998 reform movement, which have not been settled until today.

During the ceremony, Prabowo formally established six new regional Army commands (Kodam) across Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Papua, along with 14 Navy regional commands (Kodaeral) and three Air Force regional commands (Kodau). He also inaugurated an air operations command, six units of the Army’s Special Forces (Kopassus), 20 territorial development brigades, 100 territorial development battalions, five Navy Marine Corps infantry battalions and five commando battalions of the Air Force’s Rapid Response Force Corps (Kopasgat).

Such a massive expansion will require more troops, equipment and facilities, including barracks, not to mention supporting goods and services, such as food. An extra budget allocation is imminent to cover the new defense spending, which comes amid the austerity measures of the Prabowo administration.

In his speech, the President said a big nation like Indonesia needed a strong military. “No nation can be independent without having a strong military,” he said.

Beyond expanding the TNI’s presence, Prabowo has been poised to modernize the so-called Alutsista, or primary weapons system, since his appointment as defense minister in 2019.

After assuming the presidency last October, he trotted across the globe on an arms procurement mission, inking deals to buy 66 Rafale and 48 KAAN fighter jets from France and Turkey, respectively. This shopping list will only grow to include submarines, frigates and possibly aircraft carriers.

Even the items already in the basket are not enough, given the discussion to double defense spending in the next few years from currently 0.7 percent to 1.5 percent of gross domestic product. This figure still falls short of some ASEAN neighbors that have a defense budget set at 1.85 percent of GDP.

Prabowo’s focus on military buildup appears to align with the global trend of countries preferring military action to diplomacy as a means of achieving national interests. The protracted Russia-Ukraine war as well as the recent clashes between Israel and Iran, India and Pakistan and Cambodia and Thailand have only justified the old saying “si vis pacem para bellum” (if you want peace, prepare for war), which is likely deeply rooted in the mind of a former general like Prabowo.

But modern warfare is changing slowly but surely. Military might in the future will be heavily reliant on advanced technological mastery, especially in intelligence gathering. Countries presently at war are using more drones and missiles than ever and minimizing ground battles to avoid unnecessary military casualties, although this might not lower civilian deaths.

Beyond budgetary pressures and the current absence of external threats, the military buildup is sounding a loud alarm over the potential use of the TNI for political goals like silencing critics or political enemies, which was rampant during the New Order. The threat of the return of a military regime cannot be understated while Indonesia’s democracy is regressing.

The issue does not primarily rest with whether military officers possess the competence to hold civilian posts, but the deep-seated culture of violence that has characterized them and, regretfully, the impunity they have enjoyed. While it is true that a number of soldiers have received prison sentences for unlawful killings or corruption, many have escaped justice despite their connection to past atrocities.

We are buying more and more weapons, but if we cannot keep the people who wield them in check, we risk repeating the history of the New Order. Only if we complete the necessary reforms to build a professional military can we assuage this fear.