This query on the TNI's future remains pertinent, despite consistent opinion polls showing the military is the most trusted institution, apprehension is growing that the military's New Order-style "dual function" could return. This apprehension is fueled by President Prabowo Subianto’s appointment of several active and retired TNI officers to strategic posts in government agencies and state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

Prabowo, a retired Army general, was also behind the push for revision of the TNI Law earlier this year. Not only does the controversial law extend military soldiers’ retirement age, it also allows them to hold more civilian posts.

The TNI’s encroachment into civilian affairs occurs at a time when democracy, in Indonesia and around the world, is regressing. Indonesia's democratic regression notably began during the second term of President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo, Prabowo's predecessor. Evidence of this decline included the weaponization of law to silence critics and pass widely opposed bills.

It was also under Jokowi’s administration that the military began to be entrusted with roles far outside their primary duty of defending the state from external threats. These expanded duties ranged from safeguarding airports to planting rice to boost food security. This expansion was often highlighted by anecdotal evidence, such as the persistent rumor that key performance indicators of regional military commanders included rice production within their territories.

Marking its 80th anniversary, the TNI faces a defining moment in the country's democratic journey. The institution must choose between exacerbating and resuscitating the nation's ailing democracy. Given the military's rigid chain of command, the stance of its supreme commander, President Prabowo, matters most.

Prabowo's commitment to democracy that helped him secure the presidency last year is now put to the test. Having earned nearly every privilege as both a military officer and the son-in-law of Soeharto during the authoritarian New Order era, Prabowo may be tempted to turn the clock back.

Perhaps Prabowo can take democracy in the United States, despite its imperfections, as an inspiration. In her book, The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States, Kori Schake provides a comprehensive historical analysis of why the powerful and popular US military has never threatened its democracy, defying many historical and political science predictions.

The key, according to Schake, is the professionalization of the military that inculcated and solidified norms of civilian control within the armed forces. Learning from the US military’s experience, TNI’s bid for professionalism should lead to the strengthening of civilian supremacy, as mandated by the 1998 reform movement.

Within a modern democratic system, the military should maintain a distance from the civilian sphere and remain focused on external defense, and to avoid the temptation of intervening in public policy. When the military encroaches too deeply into the civilian domain, it not only distorts its function but also weakens democracy.

Democracy consolidation necessitates firm civilian control coupled with appropriate and respectful recognition of the military's professionalism. This is not the case in Indonesia, where the expansion of the TNI's roles in various government programs like the free nutritious meal program and food estate initiatives, often framed as leveraging experienced managerial and logistical skills, has reignited concerns about a de facto “dual function”.

While President Prabowo is prioritizing police reforms, he appears to be overlooking the unfinished TNI reforms. His recent policies, such as the establishment of new regional military commands (Kodam) in August instead of their liquidation, suggest that the necessary military reforms will go nowhere.

Modernizing the TNI’s primary weapon systems will be pointless, unless Prabowo simultaneously professionalizes the armed forces.